Dave the wave (@davthewave) is a noted crypto-trader and charter. Recently, responding to a tweet claiming that we are only ‘20 weeks into the new bull market,’ he brought an interesting perspective to the table: what if Bitcoin has never really had a bear market?

Bitcoin has Always Been Positive?

The question, at first glance, seems nonsensical. After all, we had 2018 which saw astronomical losses, and also 2014/15 which saw a similar decline. These are often considered to be bear markets in Bitcoin’s narrative, and then there is the triumphant return when this phase is over.

However, as dave the wave points out, the monthly MACD for Bitcoin has always been in the positive territory. Could it be that Bitcoin has never been in a proper bear market, but merely in cycles of an ongoing bull market?

Or…. Bitcoin has never really been in a bear market proper [monthly MACD always in positive territory], but has been in an ongoing secular bull market [consisting of cycles]. pic.twitter.com/CflWC1qHgH

— dave the wave (@davthewave) August 22, 2019

When looking at Bitcoin’s price movements logarithmically, the assertion does make sense. In fact, Bitcoin has been largely parabolic from the start.

You’ll be hard-pressed to find someone who looks at the above chart and notices any period of prolonged bearishness. But, aside from Bitcoin’s beginnings, the rise seems altogether bullish throughout.

Bearish Semantics

Some may say the insinuation that Bitcoin has never been in a bear market is semantics. Frankly, though, it’s not. If Bitcoin is merely in an ever-running bull market consisting of cycles, that would make it extremely unique in the financial world. Never before has an asset arrived on the scene with such a parabolic price explosion. Hence, the question is a valid one.

Moreover, Bitcoin has a unique feature built-in which naturally lends itself to parabolic movements: the halving of its mining rewards, which occurs every four years. This naturally keeps the incentive ever-growing, pushing the price upward and restricting the supply. It’s this natural mechanism that will likely propel Bitcoin to new heights in May 2020 and beyond.

So, has Bitcoin ever been in a bear market? Perhaps not, but regardless, it’s momentum is looking strong in the long-term.

Do you believe Bitcoin has experienced a proper bear market or just cycles of a bull market? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. 

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