As a reminder, halving is the procedure of reducing the reward per block of Bitcoin that miners receive. At the moment, the reward is 6.25 BTC, and it is exactly the bitcoins that add to the total supply of coins in circulation. Prior to May 2020, the figure was double that, i.e. 12.5 BTC.


The procedure takes place every 210,000 blocks, or approximately once every four years. As halving reduces the rate of new coin issuance, some users mistakenly attribute this to a decrease in the overall BTC supply. Because of this, there is a belief within the cryptocurrency community that this is why halving causes Bitcoin to appreciate, because it supposedly provokes an increase in demand for an asset with limited supply.

Bitcoin’s rise

We believe that the situation is actually much simpler. It’s all about the cycles of the asset, which is traditionally divided into growth and decline. Bitcoin last peaked in December 2017, almost four years ago. So there is a possibility that halving simply coincides with, rather than determines, market and investor behaviour.

Be that as it may, that doesn't stop analysts from comparing the current growth of the coin niche with previous moves. Here are the results of such a study.

How much longer will Bitcoin grow?

Ecoinmetrics’ prediction is based on previous bullish trends and the dynamics of the BTC price after the halving. Experts have found that the cryptocurrency’s value increases an average of 30 times after this event, Cointelegraph reported. Taking 2017’s bullish trend as an example, Bitcoin should now rise to at least $253,800.

Etherium on the bullrun, on the other hand, is a better investment – the coin has grown at least 120 times since Bitcoin’s halving. Applying this scenario to the current market position, ETH has every chance of showing a rise to at least $22,300.

Comparison of Bitcoin and Etherium price forecasts

Every bullish trend is followed by a bearish one and – as a rule – in the crypto industry this period is marked by a huge drop in all coins. According to Ecoinmetrics, the “bottom” of the next global drop is around $42,000 for Bitcoin and $1,347 for Etherium respectively.

If such predictions seem too optimistic for you, listen to crypto analyst Willie Wu’s prediction. He recently stated that this bullish trend will be the last in Bitcoin’s history, meaning its peak value should not even be valued in dollars. The cryptocurrency will allegedly become the reserve asset of the world and the value of most things will be measured against it.


This viewpoint is quite popular. The logic of analysts is that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have now become too widespread to collapse on a large scale. In other words, the existing demand for crypto will trivially prevent it from going under, as it did in 2018-2019. This concept is known under the term "supercycle".

We should note that such a viewpoint sounds logical. After all, Bitcoin has already become official tender in El Salvador, and that's worth a lot. That said, we believe that cryptocurrencies are not without a collapse phase after a massive rise. After all, it happens to all asset classes throughout the life of a stock exchange. So there is probably no reason to be too positive about this scenario.


Bitcoin in El Salvador

As Cointelegraph journalists point out, for some people the bullrun has already made a huge difference in their lives. We’re talking about American workers with relatively low wages around the country. A certain number of them have been able to leave their jobs thanks to their success in investing in cryptocurrencies. A survey conducted by analytics firm Civic Science found that about 4 percent of the 6,741 respondents quit their jobs because they can now support themselves through crypto investments.

Civic Science survey data

Nearly a third of those quitters were able to earn up to $50,000, or an average of two years’ salary of the low-wage workforce. Eight per cent were the luckiest. They were able to earn more than $150,000 on the bullpen.


We believe that this prediction of analysts could easily not come true, because nothing is certain in the cryptocurrency niche. In this regard, investors should traditionally be guided by their analysis and market sentiment rather than blindly trusting analysts. Be that as it may, BTC is looking really good right now and is well above $60,000. One would like to believe that this trend will not lose momentum.


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