Just 5 per cent of JPMorgan Bank customers believe in Bitcoin at $100,000 in 2022. Why?
The goal of $100,000 per BTC was one of the most discussed issues of last year. Unfortunately, the cryptocurrency failed to reach that mark in the last quarter, as experts had hoped it would. It is now trading at around $42,000, with many investors still skeptical about whether or not Bitcoin will be able to break the cherished record as early as 2022. Customers of banking giant JPMorgan Chase also belong to the skeptic camp – only five percent of them believe in Bitcoin’s rapid growth this year. We tell you more about the situation.
As a reminder, many traders were indeed predicting Bitcoin to rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021. However, as it turned out in practice, the cryptocurrency ended the year noticeably lower and on top of that, it collapsed right on New Year's Eve.
Despite this, many in the blockchain community have not lost faith in Bitcoin’s potential. As we learned last week, Nexo platform co-founder Anthony Trenchev is still confident in BTC at 100k. Admittedly, according to his prediction, Bitcoin won’t be able to reach that level until mid-2022. You can read more about Trenchev’s point of view in a separate article.
What will happen to Bitcoin in 2022?
The expectations of the bank’s clients were reflected in a recent survey by its analysts, who conducted a survey on “what the price of Bitcoin will be by the end of 2022”. According to Cointelegraph, only five percent of respondents cited $100,000 as an expected level for the cryptocurrency. Slightly more people in the form of 8 percent believe the annual high will be somewhere around $80,000.
Bitcoin price over the past 30 days
The majority of survey participants – 41 percent – are inclined to believe that BTC will fail to break its previous historical high, with the cryptocurrency’s price only rising to $60,000. The remaining three categories of 20, 23 and 2 percent, respectively, are confident that this year will end for Bitcoin at $40,000, $20,000 and less than $10,000, respectively.
JPMorgan survey results
The author of the survey by the name of Nikolaos Panigirtzoglu is not surprised by this result. Here’s a line in which he shares his take on what’s happening.
I would expect many people to be so bearish on Bitcoin. Our indicator based on Bitcoin futures looks oversold. The fair value of the coin ranges from $35,000 to $73,000 – depending on what investors think about the asset’s volatility versus gold ratio.
Which means the expert believes that Bitcoin will take the $100,000 level only at the next stage of market growth. Right now, its maximum is barely above the $70,000 mark. It should be noted that this will be enough to outperform the current record of BTC at $69 thousand - it has been holding since the first half of November.
Speaking of traditional assets. Bitcoin is becoming increasingly dependent on the movements of traditional financial markets. Over the past few weeks, BTC’s correlation indicator with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indices has risen to a record 0.61 and 0.58 for each index, respectively. This is the highest value of the index since July 2020.
In other words, the movements of the major cryptocurrency now resemble those of stocks and other traditional investment vehicles. This means that at this particular moment, it does not provide protection for investors from government actions or other similar phenomena, as it behaves almost the same way as popular indices.
Bitcoin’s correlation to gold, Nasdaq and S&P 500
To recap, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets is measured between -1 and 1. The closer it is to -1, the more noticeable the BTC price moves in the opposite direction from the stock indices. At 1, the Bitcoin price moves synchronously and in the same direction as the indices. A value of 0 indicates no correlation between the two assets.
What conclusion can be drawn from all this? The stock market situation is likely to have a very serious impact on the crypto industry this year, if the correlation between the two continues to grow. In such a situation, we need to keep a close eye not only on cryptocurrencies, but also on US Federal Reserve policies and trends in stock trading.
We think that the target of $100K for Bitcoin this year may indeed be too ambitious - at least because the cryptocurrency is now in the 42K zone. That said, we would like to believe that the coin will be able to reach at least $80,000 this cycle.
Look for even more interesting things in our millionaires cryptochat. There we will talk about other topics related to blockchain and decentralization.
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