It should be noted that Bitcoin is looking good right now – at least as far as blockchain’s performance is concerned. For example, Glassnode reports low reserve risk for Bitcoin, which is described by the significant volume of coins held by long-term holders and the relatively low rate of crypto-assets. This shows investor confidence in the cryptocurrency and its future prospects. Here’s the relevant chart.

Bitcoin’s reserve risk indicator

What’s going to happen to Bitcoin

There have been a lot of rumours lately about the end of the so-called “easy money” period after the COVID-19 pandemic. We are talking about a reduction in economic stimulus and an increase in the key lending rate by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). As a reminder, it is the increased dollar issuance – that is, the issuance of a new currency – that is seen as one of the reasons for the bull run of the crypto market, which began in 2020.

So far, however, there are few signs that a fundamental shift in Fed policy is taking place, while the opposite has been seen in Asia this week. As analyst Holger Zschapitz points out, the central bank of Japan has actually added to its balance sheet but also “printed” even more liquidity. At the moment the BoJ has the largest balance sheet in relation to GDP and this trend is only getting stronger, now standing at 136 percent of GDP.


In other words, there is so much money printed that it even exceeds the volume of funds which is equivalent to the domestic production of goods and services.


Balance sheet of central banks compared to GDP for Japan, Europe and the USA

Against this trend, money printing by the Fed does not look that large, which means that America has the opportunity to continue to support markets. This will also give an additional boost to the BTC price for the foreseeable future, analysts said.

According to Cointelegraph’s sources, the $50,000 level is now the main target for bulls, that is, those who are counting on further market growth. For example, a crypto analyst under the pseudonym TechDev points to a serious drop in volatility in trading, which usually precedes a sharp price spike in one direction.

Volatility drop on Bitcoin chart

Given the current short-term optimism in the market, this jump will be an attempt to get closer to the coveted “round” figure on the chart. From $50,000 to a new all-time high, there’s not much upside – besides, the number of investors who can sell their BTC at a loss right now is decreasing by the day in the market.

Cryptocurrency exodus from exchanges

Since the beginning of this year, the trend of bitcoins withdrawing en masse from cryptocurrency exchanges has continued. According to Glassnode analysts, almost 100 thousand BTC were withdrawn from trading platforms in March alone. In the history of crypto trading, there have only been a handful of such large coin outflows in a month, indicating that a trend is forming. In other words: investors are withdrawing coins for long-term storage because they believe in the prospects of digital assets.

Dynamics of coin outflows from exchanges

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant experts record a continuation of the decline in the total volume of exchanges’ reserves. Judging by the dynamics, this trend is also not going to reverse in the near future.

Exchange balance dynamics

Recall that the mass withdrawal of bitcoins is so important because this process reduces the potential pressure of sellers on the market. Here it is simple: the fewer coins on exchanges, the lower the likelihood that traders will sell them quickly.

Against the backdrop of what is happening between Bitcoin and altcoins, an unusual event occurred: the total volume of open positions and altcoin derivatives transactions exceeded that of Bitcoin for the first time in a year. This was noted by Coinalyze analyst platform staff, who openly suggested that the long-awaited “alt-season” may have already arrived.

As a reminder, an altseason, altcoin season or altcoin season is a short-term period in the growth cycle of the cryptocurrency market, characterised by a sharp increase in the price of such coins. It usually occurs after Bitcoin's rise ends, when investors shift their money from BTC to other assets in search of profit. This is what triggers the price increase. In addition, it is more tangible due to the smaller market capitalization of alts, which means that it is easier to influence their price.

Dynamics of Bitcoin open positions volume compared to altcoins

This view is consistent with the significant inflows of funds into altcoins last week, which, according to analysts, indicates an increased risk appetite of investors in recent times. In other words, they are willing to invest more actively in crypto projects with an expectation of medium- and long-term profits.


We believe that last month has been really positive for the coin industry. They have shown significant growth and once again reminded about their ability to increase in value even in the most difficult economic and political conditions. Therefore, the experts' forecast seems quite likely.


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