Author of most misleading predictions about Bitcoin price predicts new fall of cryptocurrency
At the moment, the crypto market may well be entering a new “depression” phase, with pessimistic predictions only reinforcing it. One of them was voiced the day before by Scott Minerd, founding managing partner and chief investment officer at Guggenheim. His statements about the continuation of the bearish trend could have been left unchecked, but there is a catch: Minerd has previously made several predictions about Bitcoin publicly, with all of them coming true exactly the opposite. Here’s a closer look at what’s happening.
What will happen to Bitcoin’s exchange rate
Minerd voiced his thoughts on CNBC’s Squawk Box TV show. Here’s one of his quotes, published by news outlet Decrypt.
When we consistently break [talking about Bitcoin’s chart – editor’s note] below the $30,000 level, the $8,000 line can be considered the ultimate bottom. So I think we still have a lot of room to fall, especially as the Fed continues its policy on the economy.
In other words, the expert is betting that the cryptocurrency market will not feel the best given what is happening in traditional finance. Right now, many stocks are down, so it's hard to expect a sudden improvement in crypto, which is a riskier and more volatile asset. That's why Minerd doesn't harbour any positive sentiment towards the coin market.
Guggenheim investment director Scott Minerd
Guggenheim’s investment director drew parallels with current US Federal Reserve policy, which is currently based on raising the base rate and tight fiscal measures to combat inflation. This policy is having a negative impact on US stock indices, and because of the high correlation with them, Bitcoin continues to fall.
This is not the first time Minerd has “predicted” the price of Bitcoin. In an interview in late 2020, he stated that Bitcoin would rise to at least $400,000, although at the time the cryptocurrency was trading around $20,000. A month later, Bitcoin had risen to $40,000, with Minerd sticking to his prediction but warning that “it may be time to withdraw some money”. He also confirmed that some Guggenheim investors had bought Bitcoin on his recommendation.
In an interview in February 2021, Minerd gave a new price prediction – this time of $600,000 – again taking into account his company’s research. The prediction was backed up by the following quote.
If you consider Bitcoin’s supply in relation to gold supply in the world and the overall price of gold, then if the cryptocurrency managed to achieve the same figures, it would be worth between $400,000 and $600,000 per 1 BTC.
Bitcoin exchange rate chart
A few weeks later, Bitcoin fell from over $63,000 in mid-April to $33,500 on July 9. Finally, after that the mood of this expert changed sharply and began to talk about the collapse of BTC to at least $10 thousand. Fortunately, Bitcoin buyers have so far kept the cryptocurrency’s price much higher, and given Mynerd’s reputation for “predictions”, judging the likelihood of the crypto’s continued fall on their basis is at least unreasonable.
Note that cryptocurrency enthusiasts have collected news headlines with Mynerd's predictions showing how the market moved in the opposite direction shortly after they were published.
Mynerd’s predictions against the backdrop of Bitcoin’s rate
The direct opposite of Mynerd from this point of view is Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who has always openly stated his support for Bitcoin without changing the course of his statements. The day before, Suarez spoke at the International Economic Forum in Davos, calling for the popularisation of cryptocurrencies. Here is his rejoinder, cited by Cointelegraph.
We live in a world where investors only look at things in terms of profits, but Bitcoin should be seen in terms of innovation and technology.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez
When asked about his views on the volatility of the crypto market, Suarez said that the phenomenon is part of the digital asset ecosystem and is characteristic of emerging and nascent technologies. He also reminded that while the volatility debate seems to be prevalent only during a bearish trend, it also does not subside during a bull run, meaning it should not receive much attention.
We think this situation with the Guggenheim spokesperson is comical, but it is a reminder of an important feature of the cryptocurrency market. The latter is so volatile and unpredictable that trying to guess and predict something is trivial. As such, traders and investors need to rely solely on their own analysis and be prepared for it to fail miserably. Still, there are plenty of similar incidents like the one that happened to Luna recently, so there are plenty of ways to lose money here as well.
What do you think about it? Share your opinion in our millionaires cryptochat. There we will discuss other developments in the blockchain world.
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