Note that the situation in the cryptocurrency niche looks much better today than it did yesterday. In particular, Bitcoin is once again trading above $30,000 and even briefly rising above $31,000. Here’s a 15-minute chart of the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin’s 15-minute chart

The market also looks positive from the last 24 hours. The same Bitcoin gave away almost 10 percent growth.

Situation in the cryptocurrency market over the last 24 hours

However, on the scale of the last month, the situation is still dire. Here are the relevant indicators.

Situation in the cryptocurrency market over the past month

Given the situation, traders and investors are wondering what will happen to crypto next. Here are the possible options from analysts.

What’s next for cryptocurrencies

Huobi experts’ arguments are based on the fact that the bottom level for the Bitcoin price can be determined by the percentage of net unrealised profit/loss, i.e. the so-called NUPL indicator. The NUPL is the difference between Bitcoin’s market capitalisation and its realised capitalisation divided by the market capitalisation.

The market capitalisation of a particular coin is the product of the number of coins in circulation divided by the exchange rate. Accordingly, the capitalisation of the entire cryptocurrency market is the sum of the capitalisations of all digital assets within a niche.

The realised capitalisation of a cryptocurrency is the realised value of all coins in the network, that is, their price at the time of the last transaction with them. This means that the realised value does not take into account lost bitcoins and those BTCs that have been sitting in cryptocurrency wallets unmoved for years.

Dynamics of the number of bitcoins in circulation across several categories based on their frequency of movement

The NUPL index has five different gradations: euphoria/greed, belief/disbelief, optimism/anxiety, hope/fear and surrender. The capitulation phase is when the price of an asset is at its lowest level and hence is the best time for buyers to enter the game. Judging by the NUPL chart for Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency is currently in the fear zone. Which means it probably hasn’t hit its low yet in the current market cycle, experts suggest.

NUPL index zones

To be more precise, crypto market players are now in a precarious balance sheet: almost half have unrealised losses and about the same number of traders still have unrealised gains, meaning they can sell a coin to the upside right now. Barry Jiang expects the Bitcoin price to find a strong support level between $20,000 and $25,000.

Unfortunately, not everyone shares this position, finding it overly optimistic. Yuya Hasegawa, a Bitbank analyst, belongs to their number. Here’s his rejoinder, cited by Decrypt.

From the previous two phases of capitulation, you can see that the price fell by about 40-50 per cent after the NUPL index turned orange, i.e. to the hope/fear zone. Thus, if the pattern repeats itself, the current Bitcoin price could drop to around $15,000. This is somewhat in line with my technical analysis published on Monday. Although my target price is slightly lower at $12,200.

Yesterday Bitcoin collapsed even below $27k for a while. The major cryptocurrency has thus set a new anti-record – its lowest price since December 2020.

Benjamin Cowan, CEO of analytics platform Into The Cryptoverse, also expects the “bear feast” to continue. Here’s his quote.

Current 1-year investment returns show that there may still be a downturn.

1-year returns on BTC investments

Cowan also referred to the following chart with data from analytics company CoinMetrics, adding that the number of long-term Bitcoin holders – that is, for more than six months – also reached a plateau a few months ago.

According to the Social Blade platform, public interest in cryptocurrencies is also sagging. In particular, popular cryptocurrency-themed YouTube channels are rapidly losing viewers.

Viewing dynamics of popular cryptocurrency-themed YouTube channels against the backdrop of Bitcoin price

A popular crypto trader alias Altcoin Psycho, who has 442,000 followers on Twitter, advises against rushing to try to guess the bottom of Bitcoin. And even if you do, at the very least you should consider what’s happening with the S&P500 index. According to his data, which can be seen in the chart below, every price bottom for BTC has also been a bottom for the S&P500 index. Accordingly, it makes sense for investors to ponder further expectations.

Bitcoin price comparison with the S&P500 index

Arthur Hayes, a legendary trader and co-founder of BitMEX, also shared his thoughts on what is happening. He traditionally published a huge article in which he shared his vision of what was happening. And the conclusions from it regarding crypto can be highlighted as follows.

Consequently, I would be a buyer at Bitcoin at $20,000 and Etherium at $1,300. These levels will roughly match the records of crypto-assets during the 2017-2018 bull run.

Once again, let's note that no forecasts given are bound to come true. Firstly, the analyses may not take into account truly relevant indicators. Secondly, the situation in such a volatile market changes easily - and does so hardly on a daily basis. Therefore, traditionally, we recommend that you do your own research before messing with the market.

Cryptocurrency trader


We believe that trying to guess the exact bottom of cryptocurrency rates is unlikely to end in success due to the unpredictability of this asset niche. In addition, the industry has proven more than once to be able to act on its own unique script. As a result, liquidity-rich investors are opting to buy coins incrementally as the price declines. That way, catching the bottom will be much more realistic.

Occasionally, professionals also prefer to wait for a bottom and a sure bounce in the market, after which they start to buy. Be that as it may, everyone acts according to their own preferences.

Follow what’s happening in the market in our millionaires’ cryptochat. There we discuss other important developments for the digital asset industry.

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