What will happen to Bitcoin in July

Judging by Alternative’s Fear and Greed Index, trader sentiment is still in the panic zone. After another sharp decline in early May, the index has stalled at 10 points out of 100 by today.

The Fear and Greed Index from the Alternative experts

Unfortunately, we should not expect a significant bullish trend in the near future – this is the opinion of a crypto-analyst under the pseudonym Venturefounder. Here is his quote, published in the Cointelegraph news publication.

Bitcoin will go through a capitulation phase in the next six months and will hit the bottom of this cycle somewhere between $14,000 and $21,000. This will be followed by a horizontal movement in the range of $28,000 to $40,000 in 2023. Bitcoin will rise to $40,000 by the next halving of the cryptocurrency.

It should be noted that this version may not come true, so do not count on this forecast as the only correct one. The expert only shared a likely development.

The crypto-enthusiast’s forecast coincides with the popular opinion that after a prolonged bearish trend, the market will need more time for the accumulation phase before a new bull run. Meanwhile, another popular crypto trader nicknamed Crypto Tony believes that July will bring more clarity to what’s happening in the market. Here’s his quote.

Until something interesting happens with Bitcoin, I expect a very dull week due to lack of triggers for trading. There will be more action in July due to new catalysts.

Bitcoin 1-hour chart

What could be the new “catalyst”? Most likely to be news from the US Federal Reserve regarding its plans to raise the benchmark lending rate. There is a lot of pressure on the US stock market right now because of this process, and since crypto is highly correlated with it, any Fed decision has a major impact on Bitcoin’s chart.

Bearish trend limits for crypto

As stated by experts at analyst platform Glassnode, Bitcoin’s current decline can be considered quite “normal”.

Bear market lows have historically been set at BTC drawdowns of -75 percent to -84 percent of its historical high. The trend itself had a duration ranging from 260 days in 2019-2020 to 410 days in 2015. The current drawdown is -73.3 per cent of the historical high and can range from 227 to 435 days. This bearish trend is within historical norms and scales.

This BTC collapse was a record loss for investors

As you can see, given previous experience, the global downtrend may continue for at least a few more months. During all this time, Bitcoin’s global popularity will fall, but this is traditionally a good period to start saving coins in your cryptocurrency wallet, experienced investors suggest.

Bitcoin’s dominance index has started to fall

Until recently, losses for altcoin holders were significantly higher than for BTC holders. However, this has changed – the main cryptocurrency’s share of the total market capitalisation has now started to decline. After hitting a high of 48.36 per cent, BTC’s share of total capitalisation fell to 43.46 per cent in less than three weeks.

Normally, Bitcoin’s decline in dominance would signal the start of what is known as “altcoin season” – a period of dramatic growth for all other coins. However, the Venturefounder analyst thinks this could be a trap: BTC is still the best bet among all crypto-assets right now.

Bitcoin dominance index

Over the past two weeks, many altcoins have still posted higher returns than Bitcoin. However, this is not yet the beginning of the "altcoin season". According to a crypto trader under the nickname DecenTrader, the BTC dominance index will fluctuate between 40-48 percent in the near future. That said, alts are much more negatively affected by the next wave of Bitcoin's fall during bearish trends.

Bitcoin is back at the peak of popularity

Indeed, the number of searches for “bitcoin” according to Google Trends increased markedly towards the end of this month.

Dynamics of “bitcoin” search queries

People are interested in the major cryptocurrency, but unfortunately not for positive reasons. For example, the number of queries with the wording “bitcoin is dead” – that is, “Bitcoin is dead” – has risen to its highest levels since 2017.

Dynamics of “bitcoin is dead” search queries


This is all a sign of a capitulation that has taken place or is about to take place - a period of a final wave of asset price decline. A capitulation is usually followed by a relatively long period of no volatility and only after that a new global bullish trend is formed.

We believe that the current drawdown has indeed been too sharp and too fast. However, all these thoughts arise because of BTC's behaviour in the past. Only time will tell how the cryptocurrency will behave now, given its greater popularity and acting as official tender in El Salvador.


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