Today, Bitcoin is trading in the $22,000 zone, which corresponds to a nearly three percent slump in the exchange rate. Most cryptocurrencies with relatively large market capitalizations have performed much the same. Here is a summary of the last market day.

Cryptocurrency price movements over the past 24 hours

That said, on a niche scale, there has been an uptick in the week. In particular, Etherium jumped more than 15 percent – and that’s taking into account the current collapse.

Cryptocurrency price movements over the past week

Against this backdrop, analysts are increasingly talking about the market possibly hitting bottom, i.e. the low of the rates for this period of the bearish trend.

When will Bitcoin stop falling

The dynamics of crypto’s concentration in the hands of different categories of investors is best illustrated by the so-called HODL Waves indicator. In the chart below, each colored area shows the percentage of the total circulating volume of BTC that was last moved in a certain period of time. In this case, all categories of investors who have held coins for less than three months in their wallets are excluded from the chart. Here it is.

Concentration of BTC in the hands of different categories of market players

That is, all those who haven’t moved their BTCs for three months or more now control 80 percent of the circulating supply of the cryptocurrency. Also highlighted in red on the chart are time points in past cycles with similar figures. They all coincide with the global lows of bearish cycles.

Bitcoin exchange rate

According to CryptoSlate sources, long-term BTC holders are considered the “smart money” of the industry. They start actively accumulating coins as the market nears bottom and then gradually sell them off as the market rises up, which sounds as logical as possible. So similarly, global bullion highs can be defined – they coincide with the maximum concentration of coins in the hands of short-term holders.

Short-term holders of cryptocurrency are more likely to be newcomers. They did not buy - and sometimes were not familiar with - the coin industry when it was at the bottom. However, when rates start hitting new highs and even on TV, the novice investor takes a position. This is essentially a sale of cryptocurrency by long-term investors to newcomers. And the latter more often than not end up with a loss.

Here is another Glassnode chart, with red and blue showing the unrealized losses of short-term and long-term investors, respectively. Since the wave of Bitcoin’s fall began, the latter have suffered almost no significant losses, keeping most of the coins in their hands. Consequently, professionals have no desire to sell crypto amid the decline – instead, they prefer to gradually accumulate coins.

Unrealized gains/losses of different categories of market players

At the same time, the short-term holders marked in red have suffered big losses in this bearish trend. This is further proof that bitcoins have gone from their hands to another category of market players, becoming “smart money”.

Read also: The co-founders of crypto fund Three Arrows Capital have named the main reasons for their collapse. What are they?

Another interesting observation was shared by analysts at the CryptoQuant platform. It turns out that most of the most popular stabelcoins on the market were slightly more profitable than their traditional currency equivalent. According to the report, the historical average daily closing price of almost all of the top steiblocoins is slightly above one dollar, based on volume-weighted closing price data from 2017.

For example, the average daily closing price of the Ethereum-based stablcoin DAI is 40 basis points or 0.4 per cent above one dollar. That is, 100 DAIs can be sold for an average of $100.04. This is the highest premium of any stablcoin, while the USDP and TUSD coins had premiums of 35 and 33 basis points respectively.

In other words, holding steibles was in theory more profitable than fiat. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Joo commented on the situation.

For traders, BUSD seems to be the best option for long-term holding due to high closing prices and lower drawdowns.

Stablecoins that traded at a premium/discount to the base currency

However, the only coin that traded at an overall discount over time was Tether (USDT), the largest stackablecoin by market capitalisation. Tether also traded at the highest recorded discount among its competitors, as much as 4 per cent. Here’s a quote from the report on this.

It should be stressed that most of Tether’s price deviations below one US dollar occurred between 2017 and 2019. And since 2020, its daily closing price has stabilised at almost one US dollar.

Some stabelcoins have not survived this bearish trend at all. The TerraUSD coin, which caused the Terra ecosystem to collapse in May 2022, is worth mentioning here. In fact, it was one of the most important triggers for the entire market crash.


We believe that this theory can only be verified one way or another with the passage of time. Anyway, nowadays BTC is evaluated at USD 22 thousand, which is noticeably higher than the local low of USD 17 thousand, which was reached in the middle of June. So, there is a chance that such prediction will be close to the truth.


Look for more interesting news in our millionaires’ cryptochat. There we discuss other interesting news from the world of blockchain and decentralization.