It should be noted that earlier investors also talked about more global events that could end the bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market and move it to the growth stage. A total of five such factors were highlighted, including approval of Bitcoin-ETF linked to the spot price of the first cryptocurrency, the successful update of Etherium and its transition to Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm, and policy changes by the Fed. Read more about this in a separate article.


Cryptocurrency growth

BTC still below critical level

Bitcoin is trading around $19,680 this morning. At the same time, the coin is still below its moving average 200 SMA on the scale of the 1-week chart. Previously, this line served as long-term support, but now it is likely to turn into a significant new resistance level.

This means that many investors have bought bitcoins at this rate. Previously - before the cryptocurrency fell below this level - investors with money used it to increase their own positions. However, after the collapse, some cryptocurrency owners will wait for a rise to this level in order to sell the coin at zero and exit the market. This is how resistance will form for the cryptocurrency to rise.

But the trader under the nickname TechDev has a slightly different benchmark: the area between the $32,000 and $35,000 lines on the chart. If Bitcoin’s price manages to break above it, it would be a good signal of the end of the current bearish trend. Here’s the analyst’s rejoinder, cited by Cointelegraph.

This is likely to happen when the 100-week and 50-week exponential moving average lines enter this zone. They are currently at $34,800 and $37,200 respectively.

A 15-minute chart of the Bitcoin exchange rate

So far, unfortunately, the market has seen increased pressure from sellers. According to a crypto-enthusiast under the nickname light, the liquidation of the bankrupt Celsius platform is a big contributor to the decline. Here’s his cue.

The $470 million in wBTC withdrawn from Maker’s vault is now being moved to an address that will later interface with cryptocurrency exchange FTX. It is unclear whether the coins have already been sold in over-the-counter trading.

Withdrawals from Celsius vaults

Light has also spotted another batch of cryptocurrencies going for sale from vaults owned by Celsius. It continues.

Celsius continues to send its remaining crypto assets to exchanges. A few hours ago, 2 thousand wBTC were transferred from the main wallet, which went to Coinbase and Binance after a series of transactions. The remaining key assets of the platform: 410 thousand stETH ($479 million) and 16 thousand wBTC ($342 million).

In other words, the expert assumes that the company still has assets for possible sale. Accordingly, this creates conditions for a theoretical collapse of the niche in the future.

Withdrawal of funds from Celsius vaults

Inflation data in the USA

Among the external factors that could have a major impact on crypto this week is new information on current US inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) will be released in a couple of days, with most experts expecting it to be at a high level. Here’s what analyst Alex Krueger thinks about it.

This week’s themes. The first is the CPI. Expected to be higher, up 8.8 percent year-over-year and 1.1 percent in the last month. My opinion: the index will be even higher than expected. The second is the financial reports. Mostly for the month this week, it’s OK here. The third is the European gas crisis. Leads only to more pressure on high risk assets and the euro. It’s going to be a mess.

As you can see, a lot depends on news in the macro economy – or rather at least the absence of the most negative ones. In general, the trend remains bad for BTC in the medium term – experts note problems in the US economy, crisis in Europe, inflation and so on.

Traders’ mood is gradually changing

At the same time index of fear and greed from the portal Alternative reached its 2-month high: market players are gradually coming out of a state of deep panic. At the moment the index is fixed at 22 points out of 100.

Index of fear and greed

However there are still too many unknown variables in the market, which is why we consider the situation as “extreme fear” among traders.

We believe the current state of the cryptocurrency market is best described by the word "uncertainty". On the one hand, many of the top coins have already sat at 80-90 percent of their historical highs. On the other hand - the situation in the world economy and geopolitics is not getting better. Therefore, it is difficult to count on any definite scenario in the near future. However, the potential of digital assets does not suffer from this.

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