As a reminder, more and more experts are emerging in the coin industry every day, talking about a possible bottom for the cryptocurrency market. In particular, yesterday such a version was voiced by Charles Edwards, the head of Capriole crypto firm. According to his data, the number of coins sold at a loss is already more than enough, meaning that most of those willing to sell, unable to withstand the market crash, have already gotten rid of their own cryptocurrency.

And the fewer sellers there are in the market, the better conditions for the industry’s growth prospects. You can read more about the analyst’s viewpoint in a separate article.

What’s next for Bitcoin

In mid-June, Bitcoin’s value collapsed all the way down to a low of $17,622. Since then, the main cryptocurrency has already managed to rise by more than 30 percent. Against this backdrop, many crypto enthusiasts have quite predictably begun to wonder whether the aforementioned level can be considered the final bottom of the current bearish trend.

Bitcoin exchange rate over the past 3 months

According to CryptoPotato sources, Ganchar believes that the final bottom may not have formed yet, but the market has already passed at least a third of that process. To prove his theory, the analyst has published a 20-day moving average of the LTH SOPR indicator, which reflects the degree of realised gains and losses for all coins moving on the blockchain. This has been set at a minimum of 155 days as the duration of time without movement, which characterises long-term holders of BTC.

20-MA LTH SOPR indicator (yellow line)

As you can see from the chart, the line dropped below 1 point as recently as three months ago, which according to Ganchar, indicates the completion of one-third of the bottom formation process. Here’s his rejoinder, cited by CryptoSlate.

I have roughly measured the historical trends of cyclical BTC accumulation, and on average, including a period of less than two months in March 2022, we should expect to see about 250 days of Bitcoin’s bottom forming period.

In other words, it is appropriate for long-term investors to start accumulating Bitcoin, but it should not be done in one large investment but in periodic investments, the expert believes. Bitcoin can still fall below $20,000, so you should save some capital to buy out the bottom.

Some are already following this strategy: according to the BitInfoCharts service, an anonymous “whale” has bought 15,499 BTC worth about $345 million in three days since July 15. As a reminder, “whales” are particularly big players in the market, whose capital reaches tens of millions of dollars.

Whale’s cryptocurrency wallet balance

A little later – on July 20 – anonymous bought another 45,499 BTC worth a total of $1.06 billion. The next day, his cryptocurrency wallet balance increased by 71,879 BTC, which is about $1.64 billion. So the investor now owns about 0.70 per cent of all the BTC in circulation, and the total value of his cryptocurrency wallet is $2.909 billion.

It is possible that a large cryptocurrency exchange or company is actually behind these transactions, but the fact remains that someone has started to hoard bitcoins very actively. That said, the amount of BTC available for purchase right now is quite low. As noted by Glassnode analysts, about 65 percent of the supply of circulating BTC has not moved in at least a year, meaning that these coins cannot be bought even if they want to, as owners are unwilling to part with these cryptocurrencies.

Proportion of BTC supply without movement in different time periods

Moreover, 8.5 million BTC or 45 percent of the circulating supply of coins has not moved for more than two years, while 7.2 million BTC or 38 percent of the circulating supply has not moved for more than three years.

Note the importance of the trend of bitcoin accumulation in the hands of big investors. The more BTC in the wallets of "whales", the less bitcoins other market players will be able to acquire. As BTC supply increases quite predictably at the expense of miners, at the next surge in demand for Bitcoin its price may well enter a new round of bull run. At the very least, this version of events is quite likely, the expert believes.

Cryptocurrency investor


We believe that cryptocurrency markets are cyclical, so after a long phase of decline, a rise in coins will follow one way or another. We don't know when it will be, but over the years of digital assets, bearish trends have always replaced bullish cycles, and vice versa. So the analyst's version sounds logical. In the end, it all comes down to the investor's available funds and willingness to take risks.


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