A lot of interesting things could happen in the crypto market before the end of this week. As a result, we should well expect a spike in Bitcoin volatility by Sunday. Today we will look at the key events and factors that BTC and other cryptocurrency holders in general should pay attention to first in the short term.

That said, Bitcoin is at $21,413 this morning. Although this is equivalent to a 2.3 percent gain overnight, the cryptocurrency is still down 11.2 percent for the week.

Bitcoin exchange rate chart for the past two weeks

Jackson Hole Conference

The annual international economic conference will take place on August 25-27, 2022 in Jackson Hole Valley, Wyoming. Regular guests at the conference include the heads of the US Federal Reserve, representatives of the world’s largest banks, as well as prominent economic figures.

This year's meeting takes place at a critical time for markets in the US and beyond. One of the main concerns is rising inflation, which the Fed leadership is trying to contain through regular increases in the benchmark lending rate. The Jackson Hole event will be important because it is a chance for current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to give a signal on the Fed's future strategy for the economy. This is traditionally an important factor for all markets - and coins as well.

The dynamics of the US Federal Reserve’s benchmark lending rate hike

Another Fed Funds rate hike is due in September, with a 50 or 75 basis point increase now the most likely forecast. In the former case, many markets may react rather positively, as was the case with crypto at the end of July. A rate hike of 75 basis points or even more is likely to be received negatively. Read more about the impact of credit rate movements on the crypto market in our piece.

Bitcoin price forecasts

As we already noted, Bitcoin is trading above $21,000 this morning. At the same time, on August 19, the main cryptocurrency fell to this month’s low – the $20,800 line. In just the past seven days, BTC has collapsed by 11 per cent.

Bitcoin exchange rate over the past 14 days

According to Cointelegraph analyst Michael van de Poppe, a local bottom for Bitcoin should form at $21,200.

Still not inclined to see new lows on the Bitcoin chart. However, a period of accumulation and a strong correction on Friday caused a panic. So far, there are not enough factors for a strong rise in BTC.

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There are also more pessimistic forecasts. For example, Brian Beamish, founder of educational portal The Rational Trader, said that over the next few months, the situation in crypto will not be good:

The next 12-19 weeks will be bad. After another decline, the bottom of the current market cycle should form – only then we can talk about growth towards the new bull run.

Comparison of Bitcoin’s current decline with previous bearish cycles

Beamish referred to the experience of previous two bear cycles in crypto, during which a global bottom formed on the BTC chart at least several times. “Cryptozyme” 2018 is a prime example of this – when Bitcoin’s price fluctuated around $6,000 for a very long time, many thought it was the bottom, but then BTC dropped all the way down to $3,000.

It should be noted that events in the past do not guarantee a repeat of the same situation in the future. Therefore, we should treat these predictions only as possible versions, which can happen in theory - but far from being certain.

What happens to Bitcoin miners

Despite another market crash, bitcoin miners are not in the worst position right now. This is evidenced by the so-called hash ribbons indicator, which consists of two moving averages that show the dynamics of Bitcoin network’s hash rate over the last 30 and 60 days.

The hash ribbons indicator

The hash ribbons now indicates the end of the surrender phase for miners, that is, they have recently completed large sales of mined BTC from their reserves and are now ramping up their equipment capacity. This is indicated by the 60-day moving average being crossed by another line from the bottom to the top. In the chart above, similar periods in Bitcoin’s history preceded its global rise.

BTC balance on exchanges near four-year low

According to analysts at CryptoQuant, the number of BTC on trading platforms dropped from 2.342 million coins to 2.309 million from August 18 to 22. That is, more than 30 thousand BTC were withdrawn from crypto exchanges’ balances in just four days.

BTC balance on exchanges and cryptocurrency price

And here is another chart from Glassnode: here you can clearly see that the balance of exchanges reached its minimum for the last four years. Recall, the decline of this figure indicates that traders and investors are very active in withdrawing their coins to cold wallets, making long-term investments.

BTC balance on exchanges on a larger scale


We believe that the current situation for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general is perfectly normal for a bear market. Still, the digital asset niche is not showing any serious declines, but its strength for possible growth is not visible yet either. So, investors should continue to wait for the situation to improve and take advantage of the downtrends if possible, given their own financial situation. A bull run in the markets will come sooner or later.


Follow developments in our millionaires’ cryptochat. There we discuss other important news from the blockchain world.