Price basis is the accumulated fair market value of a purchased crypto-asset plus the investor's profit from it at the time of sale. The metric is typically used to calculate tax liability by determining whether a gain or loss has been made during the holding period of the crypto. An important aspect of the realised price is that it provides a clear criterion for classifying short-term and long-term investors. According to CryptoSlate, the former category includes those who hold crypto for 154 days or less, while the latter includes everyone else.

What will happen to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?

Analysts use the ratio of short-term to long-term holders to determine the market trend. There can be three situations in total. The first is that the ratio is rising. This means that short-term holders are fixing their losses faster than long-term holders. This is usually the case during the accumulation of the asset during a bearish trend.

The second situation is when the ratio is falling. Long-term holders sell coins which are going over to the other category of players. This situation happens during the formation of a bull trend peak. Additionally, the ratios can reach values greater than one. In that case, the short-term holders will take much larger unrecorded losses than the short-term holders. And this can be seen during the final phase of a bearish trend.

Historically, a new global market bottom is formed when the index falls below unity. This is exactly what is happening at the moment, which is clearly seen in the Bitcoin chart below, analysts note.

Periods of bottom formation on Bitcoin chart

That is, as experts believe, the main cryptocurrency is starting to form its global price bottom. This period may take several months, as a bottom is a channel on the chart in a certain price range, rather than a single low point. Based on the average duration of previous bottom formation periods, experts estimate that this time it will take at least half a year.


Note that this information should only be treated as one possible development. No one knows the future, so the market will evolve and move as it sees fit. On top of that, unexpected things happen from time to time, like the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, when the industry experienced a collapse. It was impossible to predict something like that.

In general, many people are trying to guess the timing of the industry's reversal. As an example, we can recall the July 2022 version of Grayscale Investment's analysts. They believe that crypto-zima usually lasts about 250 days, so we won't see a semblance of growth until March 2023 at the earliest. The details of their viewpoint are described here.


Another argument for the bottom formation prediction is that Bitcoin is barely falling in the face of another wave of Dollar Index (DXY) gains. At the same time, popular national currencies like the euro have lost markedly in value against the dollar just this week. Bitcoin’s resilience has even caught the attention of many popular media outlets.

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Euro to dollar exchange rate

For example, journalists at The New York Times drew attention to BTC’s 6.5 per cent rise in the recent period and noted that traders appreciated what was happening. Fortune magazine also compared Bitcoin to other assets like the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and gold – naturally, in favour of the digital asset’s return.

New York Times article

The Proactive portal mentioned in its recent headline that it might be “time to go va-bank and mess with Bitcoin”, reports Cointelegraph. Although the content of the article made the headline sound like sarcasm, the author stressed that most institutional investors want an end to the current “cryptozyme”. Also, the Australian news.com.au published a note about the positives of Bitcoin and blockchain technology.

Proactive article on crypto

It should be noted that crypto has been in mainstream media headlines for a few years now. That fact alone is an important sign of acceptance of digital assets. But what matters now is the tone of the articles – and it is often positive. It’s a good contribution to building a positive view of cryptocurrencies among the average investor, who will then become one of the millions whose deals will help launch and extend the bull run.


We believe that the formation of a global price bottom in the cryptocurrency market is indeed a protracted process that takes several months. As an example here, we can recall the previous bearish trend during which Bitcoin was in the $3,000 zone from December 2018 to March 2019. So one should not expect an immediate industry reversal right away, especially given the current state of the economy. However, sooner or later it will happen, after which the market will move into a bull run phase.


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