It should be noted that the cryptocurrency market has been in a collapse phase for quite some time. For example, Bitcoin reached a record $69,000 on November 10, 2021, after which it collapsed by 70 percent as of today. And here’s how the rates of the largest coins by market capitalisation have changed since then.

Changes in cryptocurrency exchange rates since 10 November 2021

Some experts also believe that the true bear market in the industry won’t last long. Grayscale Investment, for example, guided a move to growth around March 2023 in the summer. Read more about their views in a separate article.

When will Bitcoin start to grow?

Swift elaborated on his thoughts about what’s happening in the market in an interview with Cointelegraph. He made reference to several fundamental indicators. The first of them is the so-called HODL Waves indicator for BTC holders, in this case we’re talking about the coins that haven’t moved for more than a year. Swift noted that the metric has reached its all-time high, which most often happens precisely during the formation of a global bottom.

HODL Waves indicator

By the way, the share of BTCs that have not moved for at least five years has also reached a record high. One in four coins on the network now boasts this.

Graph of the share of bitcoins that haven’t moved in five years

Another indicator is the RHODL Ratio. It uses HODL waves of realised value, which represent different age groups of UTXO coins, and they are then weighted by the realised value of the coins in each zone of the chart. The definition is complicated, but it's much easier if you look at the chart - it oscillates between the two zones. The RHODL Ratio has now reached the lower zone, which means that Bitcoin is gradually becoming "too cheap" for the market given what is happening with it.

RHODL Ratio indicator

Swift also urges against trusting most of the selebrities among cryptocurrency fans on Twitter who post supposedly “better” indicators for the market. Investors need only rely on basic indicators, he says. One of them is the MVRV Z-Score, which shows the rate of movement of Bitcoin’s market price relative to its realised value.

Here is the situation with this indicator. Judging by what is happening on the chart, BTC has managed to fall more than enough to move to the accumulation stage and further start a new bullish trend.

MVRV-Z Score indicator

Finally, the last indicator mentioned by Swift in the interview is The Puell Multiple. When this metric dips into the green accumulation band, as it is happening right now, it indicates that miners are having significant problems due to low profitability of BTC mining. Historically, such periods in the market cycles of a major cryptocurrency coincide with its global bottom.

The Puell Multiple Indicator

In addition, Swift also commented on the similarities between the current bearish trend and the “crypto-zima” of 2018. Here’s his rejoinder.

I analysed the crypto market during the 2018/19 bear market, it really isn’t much different from what’s happening right now. All speculative traders have left crypto and the only people left are those who are passionate about digital assets. They will benefit the most during the next bull run – if they can resist the temptation to lose everything through margin trading, of course.

The bottom line is that Swift believes the situation is reminiscent of previous bearish trends. And while what's happening now seems much worse because of the global economy and geopolitics, sooner or later the inflation problem will be resolved, which will create an excuse for a market reversal and investor appetite.

Number of days since Bitcoin’s halving for each bullrun

The expert predicts a reversal in the confidence of big investors in global governments. Right now Bitcoin is highly correlated with traditional assets, whose price dynamics are affected by the macroeconomic crisis. But once the turning point happens, BTC will become a safe haven for big capital, the analyst believes.

😈 YOU CAN FIND MORE INTERESTING THINGS FROM US AT YANDEX.DEN!

Over time, BTC will become less associated with risk and the cryptocurrency itself will become a safe haven for capital due to investors’ distrust of governments’ economic policies. A prime example of this is the US Federal Reserve’s constant raising of the lending rate to fight inflation. By this action, the US government is pushing the US economy into recession and further collapse of traditional markets. But Bitcoin is not directly dependent on them, which is not a bad characteristic.

Cryptocurrency investor

Finally, here is Philip’s quote regarding the time frame for a global cryptocurrency trend reversal.

I think traditional markets are likely to have another small downturn in early 2023. At worst, cryptocurrencies will have a tough time until then, so the bearish trend will probably last another 2-3 months at most.


We don't think we should take this as the only possible version, because anything can happen in the markets - and the beginning of 2020 proved that. But it is important to be aware that the bearish trend is definitely not forever. Economic cycles are alive and well and the bankers will manage inflation one way or another. Accordingly, the conditions for the start of a new bull run will eventually arise.


What do you think about it? Share your opinion in our millionaire cryptochat. There we will talk about other topics related to the blockchain and decentralisation industry.