The fact that the outlook for crypto investors is far from rosy is quite obvious. However, some celebrities within the crypto sphere still continue to voice unrealistic predictions. For example, billionaire Tim Dreyer just the day before reiterated his previous prediction that Bitcoin's value will allegedly reach the $250,000 line in 2023. However, this is hardly believable now.

Still, according to analysts at Glassnode, the average unrealized loss of long-term Bitcoin investors is currently 33 percent. Accordingly, we are talking about an average minus among people who keep BTC in their own wallets without movement for at least six months.

Most interestingly, this figure is comparable to the bottom of a bearish trend during the market’s collapse phase in 2018. Back then, the unrealised loss was as high as 36 per cent, which means investors were only slightly more hurt. Here is the relevant graph of the indicator.

Graph of unrealised losses of long-term Bitcoin investors

When will cryptocurrencies stop falling

At the end of last week, FTX management filed a formal bankruptcy petition. In doing so, it emerged that the exchange may have more than a million creditors. All these people and organisations now have funds that are “stuck” on FTX because of the collapse of the exchange. A host of other market players, whose capital was not directly affected by the crisis, are actively withdrawing money into Stablecoin to protect themselves from similar force majeure situations.

According to Cointelegraph’s sources, Coinbase analysts have noticed that the market dominance index of stablcoins has reached a new high of 18 percent. As a reminder, this is the share of stablcoins in the total market capitalisation. This means that the higher this figure is, the more investors expect hard times ahead for crypto and ignore other coins.


It should be noted that such sentiments are logical given what is happening. However, the massiveness of such thinking does not mean that this approach is correct. However, the majority of market participants usually react to what is happening too late, and in addition, fall prey to their own emotions. Accordingly, following the majority is not always the best strategy.


Stablecoin dominance index in crypto

Analysts note that the start of a cascade of bankruptcies of other firms closely tied to FTX and Alameda has yet to be seen. However, the likelihood of such pessimistic predictions cannot be ruled out. Here’s a relevant rejoinder.

The unfortunate events surrounding FTX have undoubtedly undermined investor confidence in the digital asset class. It will take time to rectify the consequences, and it is likely that this could extend the “crypto-zima” for a few more months – perhaps until the end of 2023.

Bitcoin exchange rate over the past 90 days

The collapse of FTX has also contributed to the decline in correlation between the crypto market and the US stock market. While traditional stock indices showed local gains, crypto fell amid negative news. And the aforementioned forecast by Coinbase experts suggests that next year will be no better in terms of returns on investments in the most popular cryptocurrencies.

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The negativity in the news isn’t stopping billionaire Tim Draper from another reminder of his prediction. As a reminder, back in 2018 he said that the price of Bitcoin would cross the $250,000 mark in the next five years, meaning it could happen in 2023. All this time, the billionaire has repeatedly returned to his prediction, constantly backing it up with comments. Here is a note from his latest interview.

No change to the prediction. Still expecting Bitcoin at $250,000 in the first half of 2023.

As a reminder, predictions this serious usually end up going nowhere. In particular, popular developer John McAfee promised BTC at $500K by the end of 2020. As you know, Bitcoin's current peak rate from mid-November 2021 is only $69,000.

And here’s how Draper explains why the crisis over FTX supposedly won’t affect Bitcoin pricing.

FTX was centralised and dependent on one founder. When a currency is centralised, such as being run by a central bank, it has one weak link and can be manipulated.

This is indeed the case. JP Morgan also said earlier that all the current problems in the cryptocurrency world are caused by centralised players, not decentralised protocols.

Billionaire Tim Draper

Draper is confident that the fiasco of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Friede will give the world many more Bitcoin-maximists, i.e. bright BTC fans. That may be true, but the billionaire’s mention of the cryptocurrency growing more than tenfold over the next few months is hardly true. Before the bull run, the market needs to “accumulate” a lot of positive news to attract investors, moreover, a prolonged crisis in macroeconomics due to rising inflation will not contribute to such a fast growth of BTC price.

In conclusion it is worth noting that there was something positive about the collapse of FTX – we are talking about “a turning point for amateur journalism”. Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, the largest US cryptocurrency exchange, said this on his Twitter the day before.

The tweet revealed almost all the details of this FTX story. Specific analytics on blockchain data were used here, while the New York Times wrote overblown stories about the perpetrator. It feels like a turning point for citizen journalism and the loss of credibility of the mainstream media.

Brian Armstrong’s tweet


We believe that the current collapse may not necessarily prolong the so-called crypto-zima. Moreover, such events are just necessary for the market to bottom out and plateau. And then the industry will get a gradual influx of investors, which will be the reason for further rate momentum and the launch of a new bull run. The most important thing here is that investors don't lose faith in the future of the industry, and developers continue to invest resources in the development of the sphere.


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