Talks about the cryptocurrency market possibly hitting bottom at this stage of the collapse are quite active right now. The reason for this is the duration of the current bearish trend. The fact is that it is now in second place in terms of number of days of collapse, and it is a few weeks short of a record. And since the industry’s slump will end sooner or later, investors and crypto enthusiasts in general are little by little preparing for it.

Comparing the depth and duration of the current bearish trend (in blue) in the cryptocurrency market with previous ones

Such a feature also forces experts to make efforts to compare the current phase with previous ones. On top of that, they periodically find evidence that the industry’s collapse may not last long.

When will Bitcoin start to rise?

The first indicator is the dynamics of Bitcoin’s volume of gains/losses in the wallets of cryptocurrency holders. The volume of BTC that investors are still able to sell to the upside is shown by the blue line in the chart below, while the unrealized loss is shown by the green line.

Bitcoin volume dynamics in plus and minus

The two lines have come into contact with each other for the fifth time in Bitcoin history. Previously, each of these events occurred during a global bottom on the cryptocurrency’s chart. The closest example is the collapse of the crypto market in 2020 amid news of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Traditionally, history in the cryptocurrency world does not repeat itself, meaning past events do not guarantee a repeat in the future. However, there are quite often similarities in such things - at least because many investors are guided by old market crash percentages and the like, which makes them act in a similar way.


The second indicator is MVRV for long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders. As a reminder, MVRV is the term used to refer to the ratio between the realised value and the market value of BTC. MVRV takes into account only UTXOs, or so-called unspent transaction exits, with a lifespan of at least 155 days. In addition, the indicator serves as an indicator for evaluating the behaviour of long-term investors.

MVRV indicator for long-term and short-term Bitcoin holders

As with the first indicator, the MVRV for long-term holders fell below the corresponding figure for short-term investors on only five occasions. These periods are almost identical to the global lows on the BTC chart.

The third indicator is the supply volume of BTC held by short-term holders. It surpassed the 3 million bitcoin mark the day before, according to CryptoSlate. Short-term holders are often the most sensitive to the asset’s volatility, so the number of coins they own historically rises quickly when the bottom of the cycle is reached.

To illustrate, the larger chart below shows similar indicator performance around global cryptocurrency cycle lows.

Bitcoin volume available to short-term investors

The Glassnode analytics platform also makes it possible to gauge the activity of another important category of market players – investors with cryptocurrency wallet balances of at least 1 BTC. Judging by the chart below, their number has been growing steadily since February this year and has already surpassed the 950 thousand unique crypto-addresses mark.

This data was voiced in an interview with Cointelegraph by cryptocurrency enthusiast Jake Woodhouse. Here’s his line.

“Poor people around the world are buying up Bitcoin because they see it as an opportunity to accumulate a wildly undervalued asset, which supposedly according to most people has no value as its price continues to rocket to the bottom. Bitcoin is “already dead”. Is this the case? Obviously, most just don’t agree with that assertion.

Crypto exchanges’ balance sheets, on the other hand, continue to shrink. The recent FTX bankruptcy made a big “contribution” to this trend, which significantly undermined the credibility of centralized platforms within the industry.


It should be noted that cryptocurrency platforms are already actively dealing with the aftermath of this collapse. In particular, they are creating new tools to confirm that they hold reserves - that is, user funds. The day before, representatives of Binance showed a similar thing, although in doing so they faced criticism from Kraken founder Jesse Powell. Read more about it in a separate article.


In addition to technical analysis, there are more and more fundamental “harbingers of the bottom” in the crypto-sphere. Here, for example, is the cover of a recent issue of The Economist, which shows a “doomsday” for cryptocurrencies.

Front page of The Economist on the collapse of cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin has been “buried” hundreds of times in the past, by well-known news outlets and prominent economists alike. Nevertheless, active criticism and “apocalyptic” predictions about the major cryptocurrency have always led to growth. So far, there is no reason to assume it will be any different this time.


We believe that the cryptocurrency industry will also cope with the current crisis, which is exacerbated by geopolitical issues and high inflation, among other things. Still, the fundamental values of digital assets, represented by their decentralised nature and independence from external bodies, remain the same. This means that crypto still has a lot of strengths as before.