Elon Musk believes the cryptocurrency industry will survive the current collapse. But at what cost?
Last week ended with the Bitcoin price at its lowest point in two years. The main reason for the cryptocurrency’s new collapse is now being trumpeted by all industry sources – it is, of course, the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange. So far, Bitcoin has been predicted to experience increased volatility, although even Elon Musk is confident that the coin will survive the current crisis in the long term. So what will happen to it this week?
We have clarified the current data: this morning the situation in the coin market looks like this.
The leader of the day’s growth among the top cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalisation is XRP. The value of the asset rose 9.3 per cent in the last day.
Bitcoin’s new anti-record
On the scale of the 1-week BTC chart, the fall in FTX is immediately noticeable – a long red candle that goes outside of Bitcoin’s previous pro-trade channel. The latter has been current for the cryptocurrency since July this year. Here is the corresponding chart of BTC.
On the scale of the 1-hour chart, you can see that buyers are trying to keep the BTC price above the $16,000 line.
Unfortunately, the crisis will dominate within the crypto industry in the near future precisely because of the FTX collapse. There are hundreds of other cryptocurrencies associated with the exchange that invested money in the platform or held some of their capital on it. In other words, the bankruptcy of FTX could lead to a wave of bankruptcies for dozens of firms, which in turn could lead to another plummet in the Bitcoin chart.
Other exchanges are also in the crosshairs – everyone is now keeping a close eye on the movement of trading venue reserves, as Binance chief executive Changpen Zhao has previously insisted. Recall, in his view, exchanges need to be much more transparent about their customers. Against this backdrop, outflows from centralised trading platforms have noticeably accelerated.
Those who withdraw most of their funds from exchanges are doing the right thing because, as the popular phrase goes, "not your private keys are not your coins". As FTX's experience has shown, even the largest companies in the industry with a well-publicised brand can collapse in a matter of days.
At the same time, we believe that users' trust in large cryptocurrency exchanges will eventually be restored. However, for that to happen, their executives need to come up with an effective tool to confirm their own reserves and the volume of users' deposits at the same time.
Elon Musk believes in Bitcoin
Until recently, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated in a narrow corridor around the $20,000 line. After the collapse, it needs to find a new bottom, with it being difficult to predict exactly where the final line lies.
Here’s what a popular crypto trader under the nickname Crypto Tony thinks about it.
Great breakout, but if we can’t hold the $16,400 level, then it was a fake local rise for the coin and it will fall even lower.
Note that this replica is only a possible version of what is happening in the crypto world. The market and crypto-assets in it can behave any way they want, so the expert's comment should be treated with restraint in any case.
Billionaire Elon Musk, on the other hand, does not panic: in his Twitter, he said that Bitcoin will survive all adversities, but there may be a long crypto-war ahead of us.
It's important to note that Bitcoin hit a record $69,000 in the first half of November 2021, which means its decline has been ongoing for more than a year. And as the previous bear market of 2018-2019 shows, the worst for BTC happens just about a year after record rates are reached, so things could at least stabilise further. Again, the tweet above is just Musk's opinion, which could be wrong. Still, he is far from the main man in the digital asset industry and has repeatedly expressed strange ideas about crypto.
Who is buying cryptocurrencies at the bottom?
According to Cointelegraph’s sources, some investors see the current market situation as a profitable investment opportunity. For example, the number of cryptocurrency wallets with balances between 1 and 10 BTC has increased significantly since the beginning of the month.
There has also been a noticeable increase in the number of “cryptocurrencies”, i.e. wallets with balances of 10 thousand BTC and above.
Miners, on the other hand, prefer to get rid of bitcoins rather than accumulate them. According to CryptoQuant, their total reserves have decreased by 4,665 BTC from November 8-14 alone. Crypto miners’ sales of crypto are shown more clearly in the chart below.
It is important to note that Bitcoin miners have been forced to sell large shares of their cryptocurrency holdings. The difficulty of mining BTC is now almost at its all-time high, which means that ASIC miners' yields in the cryptocurrency are hitting rock bottom. On top of that, the main cryptocurrency's exchange rate has seen a significant dip the day before, while miners' costs for electricity and other items have remained the same. That's why the increase in coin sales from this category of niche participants seems quite logical.
We believe that the digital asset niche will indeed be able to cope with the current crisis. During previous bearish trends, what was happening in the crypto world looked just as dangerous and risky. However, it is important to understand here that thanks to the collapse of FTX we are somehow closer to the end of the collapse phase - which is a positive for long-term investors.
Stay tuned to our millionaires cryptochat. We’ll talk about other important blockchain-related topics there as well.