Today, the top cryptocurrencies ranking by market capitalisation looks like this.

Top cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation

Dogecoin DOGE turned out to be the growth leader on a weekly and overnight basis. It has 145 percent and 26 percent respectively.

When will key rate hike

According to Cointelegraph sources, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on November 1-2 to determine the next step in raising the benchmark lending rate. So far, most experts agree that this round will mark a rate hike of 75 basis points or 0.75 per cent. Accordingly, the changes will be the same as for the past few months.

This value is in line with previous Fed rate hikes in September, July and June, but markets will be watching for something else – subtle hints of a change in quantitative tightening policy in the USA. A rate decision is due on Wednesday evening, along with an accompanying statement and economic outlook.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

Before the results of the meeting are announced, a popular crypto trader under the nickname IncomeSharks expects a short-term decline in the price of Bitcoin – all about the double-top pattern formed on the chart, which is essentially a definite figure on it. The coin could then continue to rise, as shown in the screenshot below.

Crypto-enthusiast IncomeSharks’ prediction

Analyst Kevin Swenson, on the other hand, shared the exact opposite opinion. He believes that as long as the US Federal Reserve will not change its policy regarding the base rate, which means the stock market is in for another massive collapse.

Every time the stock market has rallied in this downtrend, it has been on expectations of a change in Fed policy. Recently, fears of more inflation have been rising, making a change of course by the Fed unlikely. Is the trend your friend? If so, stocks will fall again after the FOMC meeting.

Note that counting on any prediction from the outlines is not a good idea as they may trivialise. Still, there are a huge number of investors in the cryptocurrency market, each of them acting according to their own unique needs and feelings. Accordingly, looking for logic here and hoping for a reasonable option is sometimes pointless.

The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike at 81 percent. The 19% probability is a 50 basis point hike. Correspondingly, a larger hike is tentatively out of the question.

Probability of a rate hike

In the asset prices on the markets an increase of just 75 basis points has already been "priced in", according to the experts. In other words, the industry could indeed experience a minor downturn, but then return to growth - as would be the case with traditional assets. If the rate is increased by 0.5 percent, we can expect a rapid growth of stocks and cryptocurrencies, although such a change is unlikely.

Where is Bitcoin’s resistance

The close of the previous 1-week candle on the Bitcoin chart shows a breakout of the $20,000 level on this scale, an event that has been anticipated since early October.

Bitcoin price on the scale of the 1-week chart

On the 1-day chart, the price of the main cryptocurrency hit the moving average with the period of 100. More details about the working principle of this technical analysis indicator we wrote in our previous article.

Bitcoin price on a 1-day chart scale

Possible scenarios for growth or decline of BTC were published by cryptoanalyst Mark Cullen. According to him, for now, the cryptocurrency price continues to walk in a narrow channel to the $21,000 line. With encouraging results of FOMC meeting, this resistance level may well be broken. The main thing is to have a good fundamental catalyst for growth, one of them could be the aforementioned policy reversal by the US Federal Reserve.

Analyst Mark Cullen’s forecast

The FOMC meeting is just a couple of days away - probably, traders should prepare for this very event, because it will also determine the direction of the crypto market for the next few weeks.

Bitcoins becoming less liquid

Bitcoins that have been dormant for up to a decade have recently begun to move periodically to different wallets again. Overall, however, the BTC supply is becoming less liquid. In other words, more and more coins are accumulating in the wallets of long-term investors who are not exposed to short-term market fluctuations.

According to the Coin Metrics analytics platform, the percentage of BTC volume moved over the past year is at an all-time low.

Percentage of BTC moved over the past year

Another chart is published by the Glassnode platform. It shows the increase in illiquid BTC volume against the cryptocurrency’s price.

Share of illiquid BTC in the market

The dominance of long-term investors in holding bitcoins is good for the medium-term growth of the BTC price - thanks to this, fewer bitcoins are traded on exchanges every day. In addition, the bulls are benefiting from the reduction in available Bitcoin supply.

Crypto investor panic is slowly receding

The Fear and Greed Index from Alternative showed a marked increase towards the end of this month. Today it stands at 30 points out of 100, in line with the fear and caution of most traders. As a reminder, there was extreme fear in the market for most of October.

Fear and Greed Index reading of Bitcoin investors over the past thirty days

Overall, Bitcoin is still in a much more promising position than it was a few weeks ago. The cryptocurrency is trading above $20,000 again, and the longer this trend continues, the stronger this level will serve as support for a new rally.


We believe that a possible change in Fed policy will really affect investor appetite and the cryptocurrency situation accordingly. However, that remains to be seen. In the meantime, we are likely to see another key rate hike of 75 basis points.


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