We note that the cryptocurrency market looks fairly stable right now. There was no significant niche collapse during the week, and the top coins by market capitalization also managed to show growth. In general, the situation with exchange rates looks like this.

Rates of top cryptocurrencies as of today

Why cryptocurrencies are rising

Before the Christmas holidays, some crypto traders are particularly optimistic: they believe that the last local momentum in the BTC price supposedly opened the way to the $20,000 line. Today, however, it is hovering around the $17,000 level.

Bitcoin exchange rate on a 1-day chart scale

Popular trader Credible Crypto shared his bullish prediction on Twitter. Here’s his rejoinder.

My expectations have not changed. Still expecting a rise above $19,000. Bitcoin has formed a nice tight consolidation here after net momentum on the low time frame. We may be down to $16k first to push back these formed lows, but still expect to continue rising after that.

Note that all forecasts should traditionally be treated with caution. Yet such statements are only a possible development and not a definitive one. Investors should therefore make their financial decisions solely based on their own analysis and view of what is happening in the market.

Credible Crypto forecast

Another user under the nickname Moustache has shared a timeline for waiting for the start of the next bull run on a larger scale. Apparently, we can’t expect Bitcoin to rise at a strong rate until April 2024 at the earliest, the cryptocurrency enthusiast believes.

Long-term forecast for Bitcoin

So far, BTC is not showing any noticeable momentum towards appreciation, although some experts believe that the crypto has already reached its bottom in this cycle. Given the uncertainty, many investors are using a DCA strategy, that is, averaging the dollar value of a position. They accumulate coins by investing equal amounts in the market at the same intervals. This way, coin lovers can accumulate a larger volume of cryptocurrency, not be nervous about possibly buying a large amount of crypto before a local collapse, and become more disciplined investors.

What’s happening with the stock market

On 13 December, the US consumer price index (CPI) for November will be released. Before that date investors are also waiting for the publication of the producer price index (PPI) and unemployment data. The announcement of these indicators usually leads to increased volatility, with some coin enthusiasts expecting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to jump in price by the end of the week.

The US stock market has continued to strengthen so far, with the S&P 500 index up 1.66 per cent over the past week and trading closed at 4,071 points. However, a crypto trader nicknamed Crypto Tony urges you to think twice before opening long positions in stocks. Here is the relevant rejoinder.

If we don’t get past 4300 points on high trading volumes and stay above, I think this is a short-term rally. It may take a few weeks for another upside wave.

S&P 500 forecast

So what will this mean for Bitcoin? Here’s another explanation from Crypto Tony with a chart.

This is a very plausible scenario. If we do see a continued crash in the stock market due to high credit rates, defaults and so on, I expect Bitcoin to fall too. Until then, BTC will just fluctuate, in my opinion, as long as there are a minimum number of buyers.

Bitcoin forecast

Global macroeconomic factors consistently continue to negatively impact all markets. These include high inflation in the US, the energy crisis in Europe and the military conflict in Ukraine.

Bitcoin miners capitulate

The volume of bitcoin outflows from miners’ wallets has peaked since January 2021. According to Cointelegraph’s sources, as of December 3, miners’ reserves had shrunk by 17,721 BTC in the past 30 days.

Change in miners’ position

The overall dynamics of the reserves can be seen in the chart below.

Dynamics of the amount of miners’ reserves

Here the balance of miners is shown in orange. As you can see, the indicator dropped quite sharply the day before.

Recall, after the FTX collapse Bitcoin dropped to new lows, but the difficulty of mining and hash rate did not change much. Because of this, the profitability of mining new coins, which was already critically low, has shrunk even further. Miners are now “capitulating” – actively selling their reserves to stay in business.

Hash rate and mining complexity

At the same time, some of them are already disconnecting from the network, which affects the overall blockchain hash rate. Today, the complexity of BTC mining has sagged because of this, with the figure dropping by 7.32 per cent, the largest drop since July 2021. The average hash rate over the past two weeks was 245 hashes per second.

Changes in Bitcoin mining complexity


We believe that in theory the cryptocurrency market may indeed have bottomed out. Still, in summer the coin industry reacted to the information about recession in the USA, and now experts predict a gradual reduction of the key rate by representatives of the Federal Reserve at the next meetings. While a reduction in the rate does not guarantee that the economy will stabilise, as it will face the consequences of a steep rate hike, the news backdrop could improve in the light of these developments. In any case, time will tell us all the answers about the market movements.


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