Note that cryptocurrencies continue to show strength. In particular, Bitcoin got out to the $23,800 line tonight, which was a record for the coin’s exchange rate in the last few weeks. Accordingly, it could be argued that the market has at least tentatively survived the collapse of the major FTX exchange, the bankruptcies of many centralised companies and the deteriorating reputation of the digital asset industry as a whole.

A 15-minute chart of Bitcoin’s exchange rate

And while Bitcoin, along with other top coins, is giving off a noticeable rise, some traders continue to believe the market has hit a new low. Particularly popular among them is a Twitter user called il Capo of Crypto, who has 711,000 followers.

The author of this channel has managed to become a kind of meme of the current bearish trend. The thing is that he repeatedly predicted that Bitcoin will fall to $12,000. For example, a similar prediction was made again on January 4, 2023.

Trader il Capo of Crypto’s Bitcoin prediction

On January 14, he stated that “$12,000 is still likely.” Well, a little earlier Capo issued a quote that has already become the cause for jokes. He called what’s happening “one of the biggest bull traps he’s ever seen”.

Quote-meme user il Capo of Crypto on Twitter

Days later, the trader noted that he is still shorting, i.e. playing the market down.

Capo’s tweet about shorting the cryptocurrency market

What does this mean? Firstly, Capo has become a victim of his own conviction. That is, even if Bitcoin does fall to $12,000, he could make more from his current $23,000 short position. However, the trader does not want to admit a mistake and keeps shorting, presumably losing money and gaining liquidation.

Secondly, it is worth understanding that even famous crypto-traders can make mistakes. Therefore, one should not make an icon of anyone on crypto-twitter, as this could end in losses and spoiled mood. Accordingly, market participants should still rely only on themselves and their analysis.

Is Bitcoin worth buying now?

Well, a trader under the nickname Game of Trades has found several factors that hint at great conditions for buying the first cryptocurrency.

According to Cointelegraph sources, the first interesting indicator is the largest volume of Bitcoin short positions liquidated in a 24-hour period since August 2021. As a reminder, liquidation is the forced closing of a trader’s margin position by an exchange when the price of the asset no longer allows the collateral to further support the borrowed funds.

In practice, this means that traders were betting on a market crash, but were wrong. Therefore, their positions are liquidated, which in this case means forced buying of BTC to cover. This means that closed positions of short traders in fact help the further growth of the exchange rate - this phenomenon is also known as short-squeeze.

Position liquidation volumes per day

Another metric is the dynamics of asset accumulation, which is estimated between 0 and 1. This index is determined by the combination of the scale of large market participants relative to the number of new coins that they bought or sold. The darker the graph, that is, the value is closer to 1, the more active investors are accumulating BTC. And right now, the cryptocurrency is just in a strong accumulation zone, indicating positive market sentiment.

Bitcoin accumulation zones

The third indicator under consideration is the coin’s “dormancy time” or the so-called Dormancy Flow. The indicator reports the ratio of the current market capitalisation to the total value of coins at rest. The lower the graph showing the indicator’s dynamics, the less often bitcoins move in the blockchain, indicating investor reluctance to get rid of them. Over the past few months, Dormancy Flow has fallen to an all-time low.

Dormancy Flow indicator

Game of Trades also mentioned the importance of Bitcoin’s realised price dynamics. Here is his relevant quote.

The realised price of Bitcoin is the average value at which all coins in circulation have been bought. When the market price is lower than the realised value of BTC, it represents an opportunity for an extremely profitable transaction.

Bitcoin realised price dynamics

At the moment, Bitcoin’s market price is held just above its realised value. That is, buying the main cryptocurrency before the next bull run could bring investors a nice return – at least in theory.

From this metric, another one is calculated – the MVRV Z rating. It shows by how many standard deviations the market value of Bitcoin differs from its realised price. When MVRV Z leaves the green zone, it indicates the beginning of the end of a global bearish trend.

The chart below shows that the MVRV Z-rating dynamic line is just preparing to exit the green zone. However, the trader warns that this indicator’s readings should be treated with skepticism, because it showed the beginning of the bull run back in August 2022, although the global rise of Bitcoin did not start then.

MVRV Z-rating

The crypto-enthusiast also didn’t forget to consider BTC’s prospects in terms of mining – we’re talking about the Puell Multiplier. It is calculated as the ratio of the dollar value of daily Bitcoin issuance to its 365-day moving average of daily issuance in dollar terms.

Pewell multiplier

According to Game of Trades, the Pewell Multiplier chart has only recently moved out of the green zone. This suggests that the peak of stress for miners has already passed, which means that the volume of BTC sales in the market from their side will be significantly lower.


Overall, important fundamentals point to an exceptional situation in terms of the risk-to-return ratio of investing in Bitcoin. The metrics are at levels similar to those that marked the market bottoms of 2015, 2018 and 2020. While Bitcoin could still collapse in the short term, its upside potential remains in the long term.

Traditionally, we remind you that even the most detailed analysis cannot predict the future. Therefore, investors should still invest only the amounts they are prepared to lose in case of an event. This will avoid unnecessary stress and financial problems at the same time.