Halving is the procedure of reducing the amount of remuneration for mining Bitcoin blocks by its miners. The event takes place every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years. The next event will take place on block number 840,000, which is around March/April 2024.

Right now the reward per block is 6.25 BTC, which means that the next halving will drop to 3.125 BTC. It is generally believed that such an event is positive for Bitcoin and almost a catalyst for bullruns. However, such logic is not particularly relevant.

The power of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

Still, there are 19.25 million Bitcoins in circulation today, representing 91.7 per cent of the maximum BTC in circulation. Accordingly, halving at the current stage does not make Bitcoin a significantly rarer asset, which in theory could indeed affect its exchange rate.

Rather, the frequency of halving simply coincides with the length of the crypto market’s rise and fall cycle, which actually lasts about four years. Well, investors have attached themselves to this event for convenience.

When will Bitcoin start rising?

According to Cointelegraph’s sources, Rekt Capital is targeting halving cycles – that is, cutting miners’ fees in half. Taking the historical trends of previous halwings as a guide, this year’s candle on Bitcoin’s annual chart should find its bottom.

In this case, this is indicated by historical data - that is, the way it used to be. However, in the cryptocurrency industry, previous results are not a guarantee for the future, which means investors should treat what is happening solely as a possible scenario. Expecting this particular variant is probably not worth it.

1-year Bitcoin chart

About twelve months before the halving itself, the price of BTC has usually started to rise. In general, 2024 will be the fourth candle of the cycle on the chart, which usually captures a significant rise in the price of Bitcoin. So far, we are at the beginning of the third candle formation, and here are the analogies Rekt Capital cites.

In 2015, the third candle showed a 234 per cent rise in the price of Bitcoin. In 2019, the third candle showed the cryptocurrency rallying by 316 percent. In 2023, the third candlestick could show much more growth in BTC than many imagine.

The arguments for greater popularity in the digital asset industry today are plentiful. Still, the current bearish trend is the first such phase, with thousands of bitcoins owned by large public companies. Also, the field of decentralised finance does not just exist, but has found real-world uses. Well, popular coins are even now being actively used to transfer value.

Another crypto-enthusiast under the nickname Game of Thrones drew readers’ attention to the dynamics of Bitcoin holders’ unrecorded losses. Its chart has recently dipped to a low that could be described as a capitulation phase. Here is the relevant expert’s rejoinder.

This is the most profitable time for Bitcoin accumulation. The net unrealised profit/loss is still in deep capitulation.

Again, this period may not be the most profitable period for cryptocurrency accumulation. The situation with the digital asset market changes very often and quickly, so there is no way to be sure of anything here.

Dynamics of unrealised losses of Bitcoin holders

Unfortunately, there is a strong argument against Rekt Capital’s forecast – an economic crisis in the global economy that has not been seen in the history of Bitcoin. We’re talking about a steady rise in inflation, which the Federal Reserve in the US is trying to put the brakes on by raising the base lending rate. This reduces the benefit of commercial banks borrowing new capital from the central bank for further investment and causes markets to plummet.

At the same time, Fed officials are making it clear that investors should not expect a rate cut this year. In other words, the Bitcoin price will have “limited room for manoeuvre”, meaning the case is unlikely to end in a full-blown bull run, experts say.

Reventure Consulting founder and CEO Nick Gurley also named the next factor that could affect the market. In his view, deflation will play a key role here. In a comment on the chart of US savings dynamics, Gerli noted that the United States could fall back into a recession that was seen during the global financial crisis in 2008. Here’s his quote.

The savings rate just collapsed to 2.2 percent, the lowest level ever. That means Americans are running out of money. The last time it was this low was in 2006-2007. Right before the global financial crisis. There’s a risk of a serious recession. Expect a big drop in consumer spending in 2023.

Graph of personal savings in the US

The pessimistic part of the forecast has its own nuances. The Bitcoin price is sensitive to any positive comments from the US Federal Reserve regarding a likely lower-than-expected rate hike. So even a loosening of the Fed’s hawkish policy on this issue could, in theory, have a positive impact on the value of cryptocurrencies. However, we traditionally get all the definitive answers on the market only in practice.


We believe that halving is not a bad benchmark for the onset of a new bull run, which does attract investors and allows them to target a possible upside window. However, from a fundamental point of view, the reduction in the reward for a mined BTC block does not significantly affect the supply of the cryptocurrency in circulation. Therefore, the effect on the market here is likely simply psychological.