What’s going to happen to Bitcoin’s exchange rate

On a 1-hour chart scale, a so-called bearish divergence with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed, that is, a divergence from this popular technical analysis indicator. While the price of BTC is rising, the RSI is falling, which indicates a decrease in the activity of buyers of the coin. Traditionally, this signal precedes a trend change.

To recap, RSI shows the over-sold or over-bought degree of an asset on a scale from 0 to 100. The indicator readings are formed by comparing the price dynamics over a certain period of time, and usually it is 14 equal periods on the chart. That is, the RSI shows whether the price of an asset has become unusually low or high. From this, traders can make certain assumptions about future market developments.

It is also worth paying attention to a recent publication by the analysts of the Material Indicators platform. They showed a map of orders to buy BTC on the Binance exchange – the next major support from them is concentrated around the $23,460 level. Accordingly, in theory, traders should not allow the rate to fall below this level.

How does it work? Imagine a trader who opened a position on Bitcoin at the same level of $23,460, but did not sell the cryptocurrency at $25,000. The most logical action for him in case of a rate dip would be to increase his position at the same level, because by doing so he would keep his entry level and in addition increase his position. In fact, this situation leads to the protection of a certain support level, because market participants are simply buying more cryptoassets at that level.

However, if BTC manages to consolidate above $25,000, we should expect a new global growth wave, experts say.

US macroeconomics

This week potential macroeconomic triggers are much less relevant than last week, as there are no globally relevant reports about the US economy. However, there is one interesting event – publication of February Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

According to Cointelegraph’s sources, it was this meeting that decided on the latest round of base key rate hikes to date. Some experts also speculate that the publication of the minutes could include information regarding the Fed’s plans to pause in raising the lending rate. And this could prove to be a pleasant surprise for the markets, because such a move would indicate at least a temporary triumph over inflation.

A sustained increase in credit rates makes it less profitable for investors to raise capital to invest in markets. Because of this, each round of significant rate hikes has had a painful effect on the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Although there have been exceptions and episodes of illogical market behaviour.

Not everyone is convinced that the US Federal Reserve is preparing for a pause anytime soon. Here’s what an analyst nicknamed Capital Hungry wrote on Twitter about it.

Last week, Fed speakers said that the previous rate decision was not unanimous, with some supporting a 50 basis point rate hike, i.e. double the final decision. Also the inflation data released last week was higher than expected. This week we will get the FOMC meeting minutes. I would not be surprised if hawkish rhetoric prevails this time.

Events inside the Fed could determine the direction of the crypto market for the rest of the year. It is possible that new rumours about Federal Reserve policy will also cause high volatility in the price of Bitcoin and other coins.

New hash rate record

The Bitcoin network is once again showing peak fundamentals, as the blockchain’s hashrate just recently updated its all-time high again.

At the same time, miners’ accumulations in absolute terms are almost balanced with their coin earning volumes. Overall, this is a reversal of the dominant trend in 2022, when miners were forced to get rid of BTC en masse to at least compensate for their losses from the market decline.

Overall situation in mining industry is now stable - there is no need to sell more BTCs at such an active pace, so at least one source of pressure on the market is definitely gone.

Crypto investors’ greed is back

While Bitcoin is “stomping” at an important resistance level, greed is growing among traders, as many investors are expecting a new round of the bull run in the near future. The situation was commented in a recent report by analysts at the Santiment platform. Here is their quote.

Bitcoin’s 8-month high in price was accompanied by a lot of euphoria. Perhaps even too much, as positive comments on social platforms could be evidence of a local peak. Just as the negative comments on February 13 may have contributed to the formation of a bottom.

The dynamics of public sentiment in the cryptosphere can be well traced by the Alternative portal’s score. Today, the index is at 60 out of 100, suggesting that Bitcoin investors are greedy.

There is no extreme euphoria yet, which means that the market still has plenty of room for growth. Probably, the break through the level of 25 thousand dollars will happen this week – well, it will theoretically open a space for a new wave of rates increase.


We believe that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is much better than it was at the beginning of the month. Bitcoin is now quite actively storming the $25,000 level, which hasn't happened in quite a while. Most pleasingly, even the slightly worse US inflation index data has not hindered the growth of digital assets. Obviously, investors are expecting a good performance from the market, so they are not going to wait too long to open positions.