Note that what is happening with Bitcoin today is definitely different from 2019 in terms of its hash rate, which is the total amount of processing power on the network. On Saturday, BTC’s mining complexity increased by almost 10 per cent, bringing it to a record 43.05 T. Most importantly, the average hash rate for the period was 308 hashes.

Here is the complexity graph since the start of the Bitcoin network.

Meanwhile, in 2019, the hash rate was between 41 and 97 exaheshes. This means that the BTC blockchain has since become many times more secure. Still, the higher the hash rate, the more difficult it is to affect what is happening on the network with a so-called 51 per cent attack.

What’s going on with Bitcoin

This year the price of Bitcoin has crossed the 200-day moving average (MA) line. Normally, this event is taken as a bullish signal for the asset to continue to rise in price, as it indicates traders’ interest in the digital asset, who are buying it.

According to the chart above, the 200 MA crossing on the 1-day chart in 2019 did not result in a subsequent dip in the price. If such a scenario does not become a reality this time around, Bitcoin could still pull back all the way to the $19,500 line.

As a reminder, these levels are determined based on previous buying activity. In other words, if traders actively bought BTC at $19K, but were much more relaxed at $20K, there is a high probability that the rate will go down to the first level. The reason for that is that many holders of capital will most likely be interested in increasing their own positions at the same price level. However, buying more coins at known levels is much nicer than buying them at higher ones. This is why traders usually protect their own entries into positions - this is called the support line.

According to Cointelegraph’s sources, on a 1-week chart scale, the MA with a period of 200 now serves as resistance for the asset’s price. As a reminder, Bitcoin’s value usually never falls below the 200-week MA, but it first happened in November 2022. If the line is broken by the bulls, it will serve as a strong buy signal for BTC for many investors.

A popular crypto trader under the nickname Immortal also urges to be mindful of the timeline. On his Twitter account, he has compared the price dynamics of BTC in 2019 and 2023. Here’s the relevant chart, in which he compares the movement of the asset before and today.

The 2019 rally lasted 193 days, which is how long it took for Bitcoin to rise from a trend low to a trend high. At the same time, only 92 days have passed since the day the next BTC bottom formed on November 9, 2022. That is, the current rally is still halfway to its finale.

Traditionally, events in the past do not guarantee their repetition in the future, so traders' calculations may also fail. That said, many crypto traders are indeed guided by the market situation of the past years, which leads to similar movements on the charts.

Stablecoin supply dynamics

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) indicator indicates that the uptrend may already be nearing its end. SSR measures the buying power of the market, that is, the ratio between Bitcoin’s market capitalisation and the supply of staplecoins. Low SSR values indicate a higher purchasing power of coin holders, but highs indicate a “bloated” market.

The rise in the price of Bitcoin in February 2023 led to the SSR jumping to levels not seen since 2019. The chart above shows that there is still a small possibility of a final jump in the value of BTC down to the $30,000 line.

That said, such data can be viewed with a certain amount of skepticism due to regulatory sanctions imposed on the BUSD stablocoin. Earlier, the New York regulator banned Paxos from issuing BUSD. Analysts believe this could have a serious impact on SSR, as BUSD is among the market’s largest steiblocoins in terms of capitalisation.

The cryptocurrency market has reached a key point

The Spent Output Profit Ratio is an onchain indicator used to analyse Bitcoin’s market cycles. In general, SOPR helps identify periods of time when long-term investors are selling BTC at a loss or, conversely, locking in profitable positions.

Glassnode analysts have published a chart of the 7-day moving average of the SOPR, which indicates a bearish trend reversal. Bitcoin surpassed the $20,800 level in January 2023, causing the SOPR to start showing a positive trend for investors.

The price has risen above the average buying levels of both short-term and long-term BTC holders, which is also a signal of a potential trend reversal. Such could indicate that the market has reached an important turning point as onchain indicators return to equilibrium.


We believe that the cryptocurrency market has turned out in a much better way than it could have. After all, the global economy has seen an incredible rise in inflation in recent years, and Bitcoin has already managed to grow from its bottom at $15,000 to a recent high above $25,000. Consequently, if the Fed and other central bank policies do begin to soften, digital assets could get plenty of room to grow. At the very least, this version seems logical in theory.