Note that Hayes did make controversial predictions throughout 2022. In particular, prior to the transition of the Etherium network to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm, he actively praised the initiative and noted its importance. At the time, Arthur predicted a decline in ETH supply, which is indeed happening now. However, along with this, Hayes expected the value of ethers to rise up to $10,000 as early as the end of 2022. As can be understood, this version has not become even close to reality.

A few months later – already after a massive collapse of the market, Arthur was betting on a collapse of Bitcoin to 10 thousand dollars, which has not happened yet either. With this in mind, Hayes’ point of view should be taken as one version of the future. And although the trader shares a very deep analysis of what is happening in the world when making his predictions, they can easily fail to come true, because markets are really unpredictable.

Former BitMEX chief Arthur Hayes

What will happen to cryptocurrencies in 2023?

In his publication, the former BitMEX executive focused most of his attention on the current state of the macroeconomy in the US. He noted a decline in inflation in tandem with a lower rate of increase in the base lending rate, as well as the growing likelihood of “new storms” in the economy for the foreseeable future. At the same time the Federal Reserve, Congress and the Treasury could turn the markets around abruptly.

It should be noted that the pace of key rate hikes has indeed slowed down. The last time it was increased by 25 basis points was in December 2022 by 50 basis points and before that there was a series of 75 basis point rises. Consequently, the situation has now really improved at least on paper.

US Fed balance sheet

According to Cointelegraph sources, in such a situation, the first half of 2023 would be the ideal time to invest in crypto, according to Arthur. Although in this, Hayes contradicts his own opinion from a previous blog post – he didn’t miss the point and gave it an explanation.

In my last post I outlined my thoughts on scenarios in which the Fed might change its policy. I argued that my fear was that the Fed would change course because of market dysfunction. If the Fed did decide to launch a money printer, such an action could be preceded by a nasty correction in the prices of all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

My fears about such a potential outcome, which I calculate is likely to occur later than 2023, have led me to hold free capital in money market funds and US treasury bills with short maturities.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes

In January alone, the price of Bitcoin rose by around 40 per cent. However, Hayes believes this is not the limit.

He says liquidity will return to the markets in the first half of this year to help avoid reaching the US government debt ceiling. This could continue until Congress votes to raise the debt ceiling in the summer, which is inevitable according to Hayes and other experts.

The amount of funds in the general account of the US Treasury will drop by $500 billion, whereas now the Fed only withdraws about $100 billion a month. All other developments will unfold around this, the expert believes. He continues.

Funds will be withdrawn sometime in the middle of the year. Immediately thereafter, a political circus around raising the national debt ceiling will begin in the US. Given that the Western-led financial system will collapse overnight if the US government decides not to raise the debt ceiling and instead defaults on the assets at the heart of the system, it can be assumed that the debt ceiling will still be raised.

Current cryptocurrency rates

The time frame is tight – Hayes is already converting some assets into dollars to invest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

I will change my strategy in the coming days. I wish the size of my position really mattered, but it doesn’t. So please don’t think that when this happens, the price of Bitcoin will be affected in any significant way.

The point here is that the size of Hayes’ investment is not large enough to have a noticeable impact on the market value of BTC. That said, Arthur urges that altcoins should not be overlooked. He continues.

The key to shiatcoins is understanding that they rise and fall in waves. First, the rally of the big assets – Bitcoin and Ether – begins. Eventually the rally comes to a standstill and then prices fall slightly. At the same time, Bitcoin begins its aggressive rally. Eventually interest shifts back to Bitcoin and Ether. And this process continues until the bullish trend ends.

Bitcoin exchange rate

For now, Bitcoin is showing local weakness – the value of the main cryptocurrency fell below $22,000 today, which was reflected in other coins. Its fundamentals, however, are encouraging.

Specifically, 1.095 million bitcoins have been withdrawn from cryptocurrency exchanges since March 2020, with 600,000 coins of that amount withdrawn during one 2022. Apparently, users now trust centralised platforms less after the collapse of FTX. Well, properly storing coins using cold storage instead of an exchange is a really good idea for investors.

Bitcoin balance on cryptocurrency exchanges

At the same time, the activity of so-called whales, i.e. big investors, is growing. According to analytics platform Glassnode, their transfers of the equivalent of one million dollars or more again account for 50 percent of all transaction volumes in the BTC blockchain. At the time of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange’s collapse in November 2022, this figure was down to 39 per cent.

Share of Bitcoin transfers equivalent to a million dollars or more

Finally, the average holding period for bitcoins before they are sent from the address remains at a high level. The figure stands at 3.8 years, which indicates that investors are willing to hold the cryptocurrency for a sufficient period of time in anticipation of profits.

Average length of time bitcoins are held at addresses before they are shipped


We believe that even the most experienced traders are unable to predict exact developments in the cryptocurrency market. After all, the industry is made up of a huge number of players, many of whom are inexperienced and do not act logically. Therefore, the situation can unfold in completely unpredictable scenarios. Whatever the case, given Hayes' experience and previous credentials his point of view is certainly worth considering.