The number of big Bitcoin investors is declining. What to expect from the cryptocurrency market this week?
February ends today, and in terms of Bitcoin’s returns, it has not been a good or bad month. The value of the main cryptocurrency continues to balance near the $23,000 level, and on a month-to-month basis, its value has not changed much. For now, the main psychological resistance level for traders is the $25,000 zone, although some traders expect that BTC could reach $30,000 very soon. What are the factors that influence it? Let’s look at a few of the most important ones.
So far, February and 2023 as a whole will definitely be remembered for the trend of popularization of NFT in Bitcoin network. According to Dune analysts, the day before, the total number of such unique tokens in the BTC blockchain exceeded the 200 thousand mark. Here’s the relevant chart, which shows the number of transactions to create NFTs by day.
As you can see in the graph, the most popular category among NFTs in the Bitcoin network is images. These are the ones that are added to unique tokens, the role of which in this blockchain is played by individual satoshis – the smallest indivisible part of a whole bitcoin, equal to 0.00000001 BTC.
What happened to cryptocurrencies in February
Unless things change today, the current candle on a 1-month chart scale will close at $23,200 per BTC.
According to Cointelegraph sources, Bitcoin posted a return of around 0.9 per cent for the month. Compared to an active January, this is not much, but the lack of a collapse in the coin’s value is also good.
A crypto analyst nicknamed Rekt Capital, meanwhile, urges attention to March. In his view, next month will decide whether Bitcoin can break above the global downtrend line, beyond which a new bull run has begun in past market cycles.
March has historically been one of the worst months for Bitcoin returns. With that in mind, some investors expect nothing from the next thirty days.
As you can see, the cryptocurrency fell in value every March from 2014 to 2018, and 2020 saw its final drop before the bull run of 2021. Perhaps this time around, BTC will be able to reverse its downward trend, as the cryptocurrency market has not behaved in the most logical way in the past.
Cryptocurrency market in the context of macroeconomics
This week, the key topic of discussion in the context of what is happening in traditional markets has been central banks’ liquidity injections, i.e. the total amount of funds at their disposal. Here’s what user Tedtalksmacro wrote on Twitter about it
Global liquidity – projected to rise in 2023, but it’s been rolling back lower lately. China injected about $450 billion into money markets in December and January. Liquidity in the US is not growing, government liquidity has been outpacing the Fed’s rate cut policy lately. Markets are a product of liquidity multiplied by risk appetite.
The commentator also compared the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds and the performance of US tech stocks to Bitcoin. Of the three, it is the cryptocurrency that has so far been resilient to local declines.
There is also growing uncertainty about the US Federal Reserve’s next round of base rate hikes.
According to the FedWatch Tool, investors consider a probability of a 50 basis point or 0.5 percent hike to be 27.7 percent. Accordingly, the markets are now laying the potential for another BTC price plunge if the rate is indeed hiked by 0.5 per cent.
Cryptocurrency buying fails in 2023
According to analysts at the Santiment platform, Bitcoin and Etherium holders have started selling the coins at a loss for the first time since the beginning of this year. And that’s not a bad sign, as usually most investors lock in losses just before trend bottoms form.
Long-term crypto holders, on the other hand, continue to increase their positions. This is evidenced by the chart published by Glassnode. The day before, the figure reached its highest in four months, indicating investor confidence in the prospects for digital assets. In fact, this behaviour is also pushing coin rates up.
On top of that, the proportion of bitcoin supply that has been sitting on wallets unmoved for five years or more has reached an all-time high of 28.24 per cent. And while there are definitely lost coins among this cryptocurrency, the trend also shows the love investors have for holla. Here’s the relevant chart.
At the same time, “whales”, i.e. holders of more than a thousand BTCs, have not yet decided whether they should return to the market. The number of wallets with balances of at least a thousand bitcoins is fluctuating around its low for the past three years.
Overall, market players do not have any noticeable panic so far, judging by the dynamics of their positions. Few want to sell Bitcoin, and many market participants are counting on the start of a bull run.
We believe that the cryptocurrency market is really frozen in a state of uncertainty right now. On the one hand, Bitcoin cannot break above the $25,000 level and stay there for long. On the other hand, cryptocurrency collapses are quickly enough redeemed by investors. Therefore, it is possible that the situation will play out both ways in the end. It will be clear in a few days who is stronger - bulls or bears - in this case.