The situation in the cryptocurrency market today is as follows.

As you can see, the biggest increase in the scale of the day was given by Dogecoin, which increased by almost 25 percent. The reason for this was the replacement of Twitter’s logo with this meme.

While such changes may seem amusing, they actually do more harm to the industry than help it. Firstly, there is little benefit to such popularisation of DOGE, as such growth for no reason can attract newcomers who will then face a correction and lose money. Secondly, Ilon Musk should clearly pay attention to fighting bots – and cryptocurrency bots included – that cheat users and steal their money.

Musk has already reported defeating bots, but in fact their messages are visible under almost every tweet by any popular representative of the blockchain industry.

What is happening with oil?

The key event of the last weekend was the decision to cut global oil production. OPEC+ countries announced voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day. The consequences of the decision were not long in coming – the US dollar rose along with energy prices.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), whose rise often heralds a fall in high-risk assets and cryptocurrencies among them, is trading above 102.7 points this morning. According to a trader nicknamed Crypto Ed, DXY will show the direction of its subsequent move this week, which could help predict the future dynamics of the crypto market.

Specifically in this situation, a rise in DXY will not necessarily lead to a fall in cryptocurrency prices, a view expressed by Alasdair MacLeod, head of research at Goldmoney. He said governments should respond to the decline in oil production by injecting additional liquidity into the markets. And this will already be a boost for cryptocurrencies.

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New liquidity could lead to another spike in inflation. In such a situation, the US Federal Reserve will be forced to raise the benchmark lending rate again by 0.25 per cent.


According to FedWatch, markets had previously laid down a high probability that the Fed would halt its rate hike next month. However, the figure could now rise again.

Recall that an increase in the benchmark lending rate has traditionally caused markets to fall due to tougher conditions for new capital borrowing. The last time the indicator was raised by 25 basis points or 0.25 per cent, while last year the rate of increase reached 75 basis points. Despite the reduced rate hike, inflation remains just above target. This means that it has not yet been completely straightened out.


Bitcoin has reached a local peak

If you look only at the chart of BTC, using the technical analysis you can come to a disappointing conclusion – Bitcoin forms a pattern called double top. It usually signals about the change of the trend. Here’s what a trader under the nickname IncomeSharks wrote on Twitter about it.

I can’t see the McDonald’s logo on the chart. There is a diagonal trendline break, low volume and a weak OBV. Logic and unbiased emotions say sell and short, I see no reason for a bullish short term trend yet.


Simply put, the buyers can't break above the $29k level for Bitcoin, creating problems on the way to further growth. Their inability to achieve their targets suggests a gradual decrease in buyer strength and activation of sellers.

In any case, it is important to keep in mind that such predictions are purely theoretical. Well, in practice, the cryptocurrency market has repeatedly proved its ability to move in any direction under any conditions. So, don't take the experts' point of view as something final.


The Rekt Capital trader explained under what conditions this figure can be considered complete. Here is his rejoinder.

BTC should soon fall to $27,000 to fully develop the pattern and form an M-like shape. Losing the $27k line is a confirmation of the double top. Something to think about.

According to Cointelegraph’s sources, a confirmation of the pattern could lead to a notable dip in the main cryptocurrency.

In that case, April could be the first month of this year that results in BTC investments bringing losses to cryptocurrency owners. However, it's too early to say anything like that yet.

A new record for miners

Unlike investors, miners are doing consistently well so far. This week, Bitcoin’s mining complexity should once again set a new historical record.

Meanwhile, miners’ positions on BTC sales remain mostly neutral in early April – that is, they are selling almost as many coins as they are mining.

A high hash rate means that the Bitcoin network remains better protected against potential attacks than ever before. Consistent growth in this metric does not necessarily lead to an increase in the price of the cryptocurrency. However, stability in the mining industry is in any case better than constant sales of BTC by miners.

That said, it is important to understand that the guarantee of Bitcoin blockchain security is not the hash rate itself, but the cost of the equipment that provides that hash rate. Still, in order to potentially create problems for the BTC network, ASIC miners must be purchased. And the ability to do so is determined by both the current cost and the availability of the devices in the required quantity.

Bitcoin supply is shrinking

Another record was set the day before – the number of bitcoins that have been sitting unmoved on cryptocurrencies for more than a decade.

At the same time, BTC balances on exchanges are fluctuating around lows set back in 2018. This means that there are relatively few user coins on trading platforms right now. We can assume that after the bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange in November 2022, many coin holders have drawn conclusions and started storing them in non-custodial wallets.

This is a good sign – long-term investors are still reluctant to part with their coins. There are also few bitcoins on exchanges, which means no major sales of the cryptocurrency for now.


It seems that global market conditions continue to be challenging at the moment. And while the banking sector has tentatively stabilised due to central bank liquidity injections, it is too early to talk about the exact suspension of base interest rate hikes. And hence the same applies to hopes for a bull run, which is still pending.