As a reminder, halving is the reduction of BTC issuance by exactly half in the form of a reward for each block created. This event occurs every 210 thousand blocks, or once in about four years.

The last halving took place in May 2020, and the next one will take place in spring 2024. Thanks to this, the reward per block in the BTC network will drop from the current 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 coins.

It is generally accepted in the cryptocurrency industry that it is halving that leads to the onset of new bullruns. However, it seems more likely that the full collapse and growth cycle of the industry historically takes place in four years – which is similar to the period between hallwings. So it is likely to be a coincidence.

What will happen to Bitcoin

In an interview with Yahoo Finance reporters, Scaramucci mentioned an important thing. According to him, over a long stretch of time – that is, at least a few years – Bitcoin holds a lead over any traditional asset. Here’s a relevant rejoinder from the expert.

If you hold Bitcoin for four years, meaning you pick a day, invest in BTC and hold it for four years, you outperform all other asset classes in terms of returns.

And sometimes even short periods of time can yield unprecedented returns by the standards of traditional investment vehicles like bonds and equities. For example, in the first quarter of 2023, Bitcoin gave 69 percent, which is how much BTC gained in the three months since the first of January. And Solana SOL jumped almost 105 per cent in the quarter, so crypto can really be a serious money maker if you choose the right time to invest.

The founder of Skybridge Capital expects the halving of Bitcoin to significantly boost its price and the rest of the crypto market as a whole. According to Cointelegraph’s sources, the milestone is just under thirteen months away. The screenshot below is the countdown as of today.

It is important to understand that the final date of the halving is unknown, as the speed of block mining depends on the total hash rate, i.e. the computing power in the cryptocurrency network. This means that the procedure can take place either in May 2024 or in a conditional March.

Halving exactly halves the new BTC offering. Just with this event in mind, the blockchain industry is used to divide the global dynamics of the main cryptocurrency’s value into four-year cycles. In other words, in approximately four years, Bitcoin, along with the rest of the market, goes through a full growth and collapse phase.

In 2023, the price of Bitcoin rose nearly 70 per cent, from $16,521 to $28,060. It’s worth noting, though, that BTC was also taking the $29,000 level at the end of March.

During the same time period, the S&P 500 stock index rose by just over 7 percent. And this suggests that cryptocurrencies can generate far greater returns than instruments from the traditional economy.

The only thing that could hinder the bull run of the crypto market so far is the heavy pressure from US regulators on the industry. Recall, earlier, a lawsuit was filed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its CEO Changpen Zhao. At the same time, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is tentatively preparing to file a lawsuit against the largest US cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase.

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Earlier, the regulator had also banned Paxos from issuing BUSD stabelcoin. Overall, startups in this area of the crypto market have suffered tangible losses, which has led to the strengthening of the position of the sector’s favourite, USDT token. On 6 April, its capitalisation surpassed $80 billion for the first time since May 2022. Since the beginning of this year, the figure has increased by $15 billion.

USDT's capitalization record is $83 billion. Which means Stablecoin is essentially near the peak of its popularity.

On the other hand, the capitalisation of Tether’s main competitors USD Coin and Binance USD have fallen by around $12 billion and $9.4 billion respectively since the beginning of 2023.

That is, investors started selling their USDC and BUSD at an accelerated pace, exchanging them for USDT. BUSD’s problems were caused by the aforementioned SEC and Paxos incident, while USDC’s capitalisation began to fall due to ties between the Stablecoin issuer Circle and the now-closed US bank Silicon Valley Bank.

Interestingly, the rise in USDT supply in circulation has coincided with a fall in its supply on exchanges. Tether’s balance on trading platforms fell 28 per cent to USDT 12.88 billion over the year. In comparison, the aggregate balance of stablcoin on exchanges has fallen 41 per cent since the beginning of the year to USD22.31 billion.

This suggests that USDT were spent to buy BTC and altcoins on centralised exchanges.


We think the version of the end of the bear market for cryptocurrencies sounds quite plausible. Still, Bitcoin at its local bottom in this cycle has been in the $15,000 zone - and a drop to this mark or lower, given the coin's strong growth in the first quarter of 2023, looks almost impossible. Also, cryptocurrencies now seem like a much more attractive investment against the backdrop of the recent banking crisis. It has clearly shown that money in banks is not safe, which means people should look for alternatives to store it.