Recall that the story of Balaji’s controversy began in March 2023. Back then, he said he was confident that Bitcoin would grow to a million dollars in just ninety days. According to the expert, this will allegedly be facilitated by serious problems in the global economy, which will lead to a depreciation of the dollar.

At the same time, other experts are much less radical in their predictions. For example, analysts at Standard Chartered last week did announce the end of the so-called crypto-zima, i.e. the long phase of cryptocurrency market collapse. However, they believe that a realistic level for Bitcoin is the $100,000 mark – and not until 2024. Read more about this in a separate article.

When Bitcoin will rise to a million dollars

Today, BTC is trading above $28,000. Accordingly, for Srinivasan to win the bet, Bitcoin needs to show unprecedented returns for its trading history in a fairly short period of a month and a half.

In general, Srinivasan’s bet started with a tweet by a Twitter user nicknamed jdcmedlock. He suggested his followers to bet on the fact that hyperinflation will not start in the US in the near future, well, all the hyped predictions of a new crisis are in fact a hollow. A former Coinbase employee responded to the call, and a little later another anonymous user joined the bet, bringing the total amount of the bet to 2 million dollars.


Note that there is a crisis in the US after all - and it is a banking one. As we noted earlier, three major banks in Silicon Valley Bank, Signature and Silvergate all collapsed in March 2023. Also in the spotlight in recent days has been First Republic Bank, whose shares plunged 75 per cent in the past week amid a sharp deposit outflow.

As a result of the developments, regulators have decided to sell FRB. Its buyer will be JP Morgan, with First Republic Bank's assets valued at $229.1 billion. Another $103.9 billion is in the form of user deposits.


On stage during the public discussion at the conference, Srinivasan reminded the audience that the global financial crisis of 2008 came just five months after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s public statement. At that time, he promised that the US economy could enter a “tolerable recession”, according to CryptoPotato. Already in April 2023, the current head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, made almost the same statement against the backdrop of the banking crisis.


That is, Balaji is hinting that events from the past could supposedly repeat themselves in the future, but in fact they are not. In fact, he is now a hostage of his own certainty, which is why he is forced to talk about the supposed lack of doubts about his own forecast and its realism.

In reality, however, the chances of Bitcoin rising to a million dollars in a month and a half are nil. Why should the cryptocurrency suddenly jump almost fifteen times from its all-time high of $69,000 in a few weeks? Certainly, the banking crisis this spring may have added to investor confidence in the prospects of digital assets, but there is still no talk of rates increasing by leaps and bounds. So there's no point in listening to Balaji - he's only PR on his own willingness to lose two million dollars.


It is especially important to understand that the financial crisis – if it happens – will be very hard on the world economy. It is therefore a selfish and dangerous idea to count on this solely for the sake of devaluing the dollar and adding extra zeros to your own crypto portfolio.

However, Srinivasan believes that the worst for the global economy is yet to come. Here is his statement.

I don’t know how many more months or years we have. If you think like a trader, you think too soon is the same as being wrong. If you think like a ‘survivalist’, hell is the truth seen too late.

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While making his bet with other cryptocurrency enthusiasts on Twitter, Balaji said that the main trigger to the rapid rise of BTC would be the hyperinflation of the dollar. At Consensus 2023, he admitted that he couldn’t give an exact time frame for his prediction, but in such a situation, it’s best to prepare for a collapse in advance. Here is his rejoinder.

Just to put it in statistical terms: I think we have a 10 percent chance of a very serious problem in the economy in a few months. There’s a 70 per cent chance of it happening years from now, 19 per cent chance of it happening decades from now. And only 1 per cent after a century and so on.

Here’s another quote from Balaji, cited by CryptoSlate.

Could it be that it [Bitcoin’s rise to a million dollars – editor’s note] could take 900 days or even 90 months? Yes, it’s possible, because my argument doesn’t have a 100 per cent probability.

Generally speaking, a 10 per cent probability of default is a very high level and worth paying attention to. Other experts also consider the probability of sovereign default to be at an all-time high.

Obviously, Srinivas’ forecast is too pessimistic and looks unrealistic on such a short timeframe. Moreover, judging from Balaji’s recent quotes, he himself does not expect to win the bet.

The point of the argument from the former Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange is to draw attention to the problem of banks and the US Federal Reserve. But even if disaster does happen as early as this summer, Balaji is quick to dismiss any potential blame for the crisis. According to him, the worst will happen with the banking system, not a series of his tweets.


We believe that Balaji Srinivasan himself no longer believes in his own prediction of Bitcoin's rise. This is evident from his new remarks, as well as mentions of probabilities, timing and other additional betting details. This situation should be a reminder that even the most famous and wealthy in the industry do not know the future, nor can they predict future market behaviour. So the only thing left to consider here is whether Balaji's instant popularity and media exposure was worth the prospect of two million dollars lost.


What do you think about this? Share your opinion in our cryptochat of ex-rich people who are waiting for the next bullrun and another portfolio rise to highs.

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