It should be noted that Arthur Hayes quite often comments on what is happening in the world of cryptocurrencies, and sometimes his predictions fail miserably. The most glaring collapse was the version about Etherium’s alleged ability to jump to $10,000 by the end of 2022. Arthur attributed it to the blockchain’s impending transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm. Hayes also cited the marked decline in ether issuance after the event.

We checked the latest data: the total number of ETH in circulation has fallen by 268,000 units since Etherium’s transition to PoS. And if the blockchain had continued to run on PoW with its inherent issuance, the supply would have increased by 2.7 million ETH.

The day before, developments in the digital asset industry were also commented on by current BitMEX chief Stefan Lutz. He believes that the crypto industry is undergoing a renaissance today. And it was made possible by the harsh events of 2022 – including the collapse of the FTX platform.

When will Bitcoin rise again?

Hayes believes the most important period for the next bullrun will be 2024. It will be next year when Bitcoin will have a chance to cross the $70,000 line and set a new all-time high, the trader believes. Here’s his rejoinder, cited by CryptoPotato.

We’re going to have a hulking year in 2024. I think it will be a good year, but it’s unlikely that Bitcoin can get to $70,000 in 2023 specifically. Next year the market will break that barrier and then we will get new highs in 2025 and 2026. Even later, Armageddon will come.

“Armageddon” is the next negative global event like a war, new financial crisis or other upheaval. As early as 2026 or beyond, the cryptocurrency market will face new challenges that will lead to the formation of another bearish trend, Hayes believes. He continues.

We have a powder keg with too much money, a lack of public confidence and people trying to make a living.


In this case, by too much money, Hayes is referring to the volume of fiat currency in circulation. And while the U.S. government has been actively trying to reduce the supply of the dollar since the end of the main phase of the pandemic, the previous day the "printer" was re-launched, due to which officials' efforts have not yet yielded results. Well, inflation is still quite high.


On the whole, Arthur has no faith in the strategies of central banks, which keep printing new money to postpone the crisis. Eventually the collapse of the world economy will happen, and excessive inflation will only worsen the consequences. In any case, in his previous blog posts, Hayes wrote that Bitcoin is a good investment in case of a new crisis.

Bitcoin is a “neutral reserve currency,” that is, a form of value that is not subject to the control of any government or centralized organization, Hayes notes. Overall, this is the cryptocurrency’s most attractive feature to investors after its limited supply. So there really could be a lot of value in investing in BTC over the long term.

???? YOU CAN FIND MORE INTERESTING THINGS ON OUR YANDEX.ZEN!

Short-term bitcoin holders can also make good profits – it turns out that most of them can sell their BTCs in the plus right now. This is evidenced by a metric called STH-SOPR, which measures the ratio between the dollar value of coins at the time UTXO was created and the value at the time UTXO was spent. In other words – it shows how much of the coins were selling at a profit among those BTCs that moved not so long ago.

To recap, short-term Bitcoin holders, short-term holders or STHs, are those market players who purchased BTC 155 days ago or later. In contrast, to fall into the category of long-term investors, one needs to hold the digital asset for more than six months, Coindesk reported.

According to analysts at the Blockware Solutions platform, the STH-SOPR is now above the value of 1 point, meaning short-term Bitcoin holders are selling the coins on the plus side. Experts believe that such indicator data indicates a good prospect for the main cryptocurrency’s value to rise in the near future, as long-term investors are less likely to get rid of their own coins. Therefore, when willing sellers among short-term investors run out, there will be far fewer obstacles for a new wave of growth in the digital asset market.

The STH-SOPR chart can also be used to look for entry points into the market during potential Bitcoin price corrections. The 1-point STH-SOPR zone indicates that short-term BTC holders are in a no-loss zone, it also indicates a potential market bottom during a bull run.


The former BitMEX chief seems to be banking on the traditional length of market cycles in the cryptocurrency world, which last about four years. If things are similar to the events of 2020, a new bullrun should really be expected by the end of 2024, i.e. a few months after Bitcoin's halving. However, this is all just speculation, so investors should prepare for all scenarios and make all investment decisions on their own.


Find more interesting information about crypto in our Future Millionaires chat. There we also discuss other important developments that are somehow approaching the new bullrun.