April 2023 saw little change in the cryptocurrency market. During this month, Bitcoin’s exchange rate rose by 2.8 percent.

At the same time, Etherium increased in value by only 2.7 percent.

That said, it’s worth noting that the same Bitcoin network is now being used more heavily than ever. For example, yesterday there were 682,000 transfers on the BTC blockchain. The previous record from March 30 lasted only a day and amounted to 568 thousand transactions, which illustrates quite clearly what is happening in the world of digital assets.

The popularity of NFT based on the Ordinals protocol contributes to good figures. Yesterday users created 372 thousand new NFTs using it, which is a historical high.

What to expect from Bitcoin next

Today, Bitcoin is trading in the $28,000 zone. Accordingly, the candle that opened with the onset of May on the 1-month chart is still red, in addition, the end of April also did not bring the cryptocurrency high returns for the month.

Opening positions for traders is now fraught with uncertainty, according to Head of Eight Michael van de Poppe. According to him, a confident overcoming of the $30,000 level will be an important signal for the continuation of BTC’s upward rally. Until then, the cryptocurrency will simply fluctuate horizontally and lead to regular liquidations of leveraged traders’ positions, i.e. borrowed capital from the exchange.

In analysis from the popular trader nicknamed Crypto Tony, holding the $28,300 support level was important for the bull run to continue. Unfortunately, Bitcoin has so far fallen below the aforementioned line and shows no clear signs of a strong rebound.

Obviously, in this case, the cryptocurrency needs a serious increase in volatility and the volume of open positions in the market. This could happen in the coming days, because of the current US economy.

Should we expect a new crisis?

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee will meet on May 3. The next change in the benchmark lending rate will be decided there. At the moment markets lay as high as 0.25% or 25 basis points probability of increase, but taking into account situation with First Republic Bank, things may change.


Recall that a high base interest rate was precisely the cause of the banking crisis in the USA in March 2023. For example the management of Silicon Valley Bank was actively investing users' money in long-term government bonds. However, because of the increase of the base rate the bonds they bought became less attractive because their yield compared to the normal rate of return was undervalued. This led to a decline in the value of this financial instrument, which had to be sold at a discount when customers rushed to withdraw their deposits amid news of the bank's monetary problems. Read more about this situation in a separate article.


FRB’s share price sank more than 75 per cent in April, given the massive deposit outflow from the institution. The bank as a whole is publicly managed by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). PNC Financial Services Group, JPMorgan Chase and Citizens Financial Group participated in the tender for purchase of FRB assets. In the end, it was JPMorgan that became its new owner.

According to Cointelegraph’s sources, in this situation the US Federal Reserve may act differently with the rate compared to market expectations. In theory, this would reduce the negative short-term impact on the economy, but at the same time increase the risks to the banking system in the long term. According to analysts, a rate change to a different value, or even no change, could come as a shock to a market whose participants are used to hoping for a certain outcome.

The growth of the Bitcoin ecosystem

“Under the bonnet” of the main cryptocurrency ecosystem, all is well: as we have already noted, the number of BTC transactions per day has set two historical records. That is, Bitcoin continues to be actively used in the current environment.

According to a recent Glassnode report, the wallet balance of major BTC holders is also growing. That is, even those who bought bitcoins during the FTX collapse last November are not getting rid of their investments.

The statistics were commented on by Glassnode’s lead analyst under the nickname Checkmate. Here is the analyst’s relevant rejoinder.

The conclusion is that the uptrend is confirmed, the bottom has already been passed. But the inflow of new capital is limited, plus the existing Bitcoin holder base is still dominant. Thus, a period of uncertainty is expected, where traders have more and more influence on the asset and liquidity on a smaller scale.

In other words, looking back at the cryptocurrency's fundamentals, its long-term future looks good for investors. At the very least, experts agree that there is no reason to expect new price lows on this bearish trend.

At the same time, the Fear and Greed Index, prepared by experts at Alternative, is in the greed zone. The index now stands at 55 points out of 100, which means investors and traders are still inclined to open BTC positions instead of trying to ignore digital assets.


As a result, the cryptocurrency market has shown stability in response to the ongoing banking crisis. However, the attention of all financial market participants is now riveted on this Wednesday's FOMC meeting, where the key interest rate will be changed. Accordingly, a decision on it will bring clarity to what is going on and add some certainty to investors. However, after 10 rate hikes in a row the chances of this trend continuing are much lower than they were a year ago.


What do you think about it? Share your opinion in our ex-wealthy cryptochat. There we share recipes on how to wait more effectively for the next bullrun to come.