Generally speaking, May turned out to be extremely productive for Bitcoin. Specifically, the cryptocurrency’s network saw more than 15 million transactions for the first time. This is significantly more than the previous high of May 2019 of 11.51 million transactions.

It can be assumed that the basis for the record was the popularity of NFT tokens based on the Ordinals protocol and the so-called BRC20 tokens. The number of the former surpassed the 10 million units mark the day before.

Bitcoin investors are in no hurry to get rid of their accumulated coins – first of all, it concerns owners of addresses, which have from 10 to 10 thousand BTC. According to Santiment analysts, the number of coins in their possession has increased by 93 thousand units since mid-April 2023.

This is when the Bitcoin exchange rate reached a local high. Which means the cryptocurrency’s gradual sagging is causing investors to only increase their holdings, not the other way around.

What will happen to the Bitcoin price?

The analysts’ report begins by comparing the value of some popular traditional assets and Bitcoin. Here’s a relevant rejoinder from the experts, cited by CryptoPotato.

Since October 2022, the global market has seen a rise in liquidity, with digital assets and precious metal prices reacting positively, and increasingly interconnected. Both asset classes are currently experiencing their second uptrend correction in a year, with BTC and silver down 10.8 per cent and 10.6 per cent from their respective 90-day highs.

Meanwhile, over the past 90 days, WTI oil has fallen in price by 4 per cent, while gold and silver have risen by 7.5 per cent and 12.7 per cent respectively. At the same time, Bitcoin posted a 14.5 per cent rise, putting it ahead of the listed assets.

The first conclusion is that the correlation between precious metals and the main cryptocurrency has increased markedly since the end of 2022. That said, Bitcoin’s average volatility for the month dropped to 34.1 per cent.

This is a low according to the Bollinger Bands indicator, a similar situation was observed only during 19.3 percent of BTC trading time, which is quite rare. Experts, however, believe that Bitcoin’s volatility will soon increase significantly.

Bollinger Bands is a technical analysis indicator that shows the standard deviation from the moving average line over a certain period of time.

It should be noted that not so long ago, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold was at an all-time high. Now the indicator is only 11 percent, which indicates a slight similarity in the movements of the value of these assets.

In addition to low volatility, analysts also recorded a significant drop in trading activity on exchanges. This can partly be attributed to a drop in confidence in centralised trading platforms following the collapse of FTX last November.

Also affecting are the closures of certain banks, which have caused some large investors to start experiencing problems in transactions between fiat and crypto.

Based on the above metrics, experts have concluded that the crypto market has reached an equilibrium zone in terms of the Net Unrealised Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator. This indicator shows the dollar value of the total net profit or loss as a percentage of capitalisation.

Four phases of the market cycle can be identified by the NUPL:

• Bottom forming: NUPL < 0
• Surrender and recovery: 0 < NUPL < 0.25
• Equilibrium phase: 0.25 < NUPL < 0.5
• Bullish trend: 0.5 < NUPL

The current NUPL value of 0.29 points is at the lower end of the equilibrium phase, which is the zone where 37.5 percent of all Bitcoin trading has occurred. This zone was reached in early March 2023. Based on the last two market cycles, the asset may move within it for an average of 16 months. As you can see from the chart, these are good periods for BTC accumulation before the final bullish trend spurt – at least that’s how it’s been going before.

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The Glassnode report had no information on the possible peak of the next cryptocurrency bullrun, but earlier digital asset enthusiasts had tried to find the answer with the help of artificial intelligence ChatGPT. In doing so, it turned out that the popular chatbot sometimes makes gross errors in the history of Bitcoin’s market cycles.

When asked if the price of Bitcoin has ever reached or exceeded the $100,000 mark, ChatGPT answered the following.

Yes, Bitcoin has reached and exceeded the $100,000 level. Bitcoin has experienced a significant price rally, and on multiple occasions in 2021 and 2022 it has reached and exceeded the $100,000 per BTC mark.

To recap, in November 2021, the cryptocurrency hit an all-time high of $69,000, after which another bearish trend in the digital asset world began. The following year, 2022, was much less favourable: by the end of it, BTC had fallen to a low of $15,476. And even despite the positive start of 2023, the asset is still far from the $100,000 mark.

Therefore, it is better not to trust the artificial intelligence to research the market on which the decisions to open certain trading positions are based. This task should always be done by the trader, relying only on tools that he or she knows and understands.


We believe that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is generally normal for a bearish trend. Overall, there is no certainty in the industry right now as to how the market will continue to move, and investors are under pressure from global economic problems. Despite that, the BTC exchange rate is almost double its local low at this stage of the collapse, recorded in November 2022. So a timely coin purchase a couple of months ago would have paid off even in spite of all the problems.


Even more interesting information about crypto can be found in our Future Millionaires chat room. There, first of all, we are waiting for the new bullrun, which is clearly less to wait for than it has been since the days of Bitcoin at $69,000.