Bitcoin investors are now becoming less active and are in no hurry to buy back the cryptocurrency after it collapsed. That was the conclusion reached by Santiment platform experts, who traditionally studied traders’ sentiments in social networks. They primarily monitored the components of the phrase “buy the dip”, which means “buy back the bottom”. And just in recent weeks, the frequency of tweets with such content has been actively declining.

For example, on the bullpen, crowds of digital asset lovers run to Twitter after another market downturn to tweet such messages, hinting that they have properly purchased the coins. Well, since mid-March there have been fewer and fewer such tweets.

We can assume that investors are afraid to get involved with digital assets in the current economic climate. However, the market now assumes, among other things, that the benchmark interest rate will increase by another 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting in mid-June given what is happening in the global economy. The probability of such an increase is now estimated at 64%.

What’s happening to Bitcoin?

Short-term holders of the cryptocurrency are market players who bought BTC 155 days ago or earlier. Checkmate has published charts of several indicators that are variations of the ratios of short-term holders’ behaviour and market players’ realised gains and losses. According to him, this combination is one of the most responsive tools for tracking trends, reports Cointelegraph.

So, the first indicator is called STH-MVRV – it compares the value of coins moved by short-term holders to the value of those same coins as part of Bitcoin’s total market capitalisation. At 1 point, the indicator corresponds to the realisation price of short-term holders, that is, the aggregate price at which their coins last moved.

In other words, an indicator reading of 1 gives an idea of the average breakeven point for short-term Bitcoin holders. It is currently around $26,500. As a result, analyst Checkmate believes that this level can be seen as an important support for the entire market.

The second indicator is called STH-SOPR – it is defined as the ratio between the dollar value of coins at the time UTXO was created and the value at the time UTXO was spent. Read more about the essence of UTXO in our in-depth article.

Checkmate’s STH-SOPR reading has commented as follows.

STH-SOPR is below one point, signaling loss dominance among market players. This metric does not take into account coin volume and therefore represents a full slice of the market. Short-term Bitcoin holders’ losses can only be associated with buyers of local BTC highs. Oddly enough, we want to see selling on their part around the local low. This is what creates the rebound reaction of the cryptocurrency’s price for the bull run.

Finally, another important metric is the profit and loss dynamics of short-term Bitcoin holders. According to Checkmate, the indicator is so far in neutral. Accordingly, short-term holders of BTC are making fewer profits compared to the beginning of this year, when the cryptocurrency’s price growth rate was the highest.

Moreover, the same indicator could serve as one of the first signs of a possible market correction to continue, according to Checkmate. Overall, the bulls “need to put in more effort” to move the market. Otherwise, Bitcoin could yet unpleasantly surprise everyone with another plummet – as well as other digital assets.

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Another fundamental metric at the Glassnode platform’s disposal is the balance of Etherium on exchanges. By the end of this week, it had reached its lowest in five years. There is now only 17.86 million ETH on all centralised trading venues – that’s about 14.85 percent of the available supply of the altcoin.

By comparison, during the bull run of 2021, the share of available ETH supply on centralised exchanges was as high as 26 per cent.

The decline in the supply of ETH on exchanges began in September 2022, well, the collapse of FTX has only intensified this trend. There is an important correlation here – investors have become less trusting of centralised cryptocurrency exchanges after the collapse of such a large company. Accordingly, we can assume that many of them are now storing coins in the hardware wallets we are already familiar with, while other investors are sending ethers into stacking and becoming validators.

The 30-day volatility of Etherium also hit a low this week. This means that on a monthly scale, the cryptocurrency’s exchange rate is changing as little as ever. There is no doubt about that, as the value of ETH declined by 3 percent in the last month, but in the last two weeks the figure rose by only 1 percent.


It seems that investor interest in the cryptocurrency market has now decreased significantly. First of all, the difficult situation in the global economy and the prospect of default on the U.S. national debt, which has not yet been resolved, clearly have an impact here. So for now we have to wait for signs of improvement and bulls' activation.