Bitcoin mining profitability has fallen to a historic low. What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market?
Mining Bitcoin is now extremely difficult, and the companies themselves are forced to optimise their own activities as much as possible for the sake of profit. This disappointing conclusion was reached by analysts at banking giant JPMorgan. They noted a sharp increase in the hash rate of the Bitcoin network in August, as well as a noticeable increase in the number of American miners.
Several factors have affected the profitability of Bitcoin mining this year. The main one is the halving procedure, which involves halving the reward for a mined block in the BTC network. It took place on 20 April, during which the reward was reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 coins per block.
Despite the decline in miners’ earnings, the processing power of their hardware on the network continues to set records. The last maximum hash rate of 859 exashells per second was set on 23 July.
This, in turn, led to a record increase in the difficulty of BTC mining at the end of July. At that time, the figure jumped 10.5 percent to a maximum of 90.67 T.
Taking all this into account, we can conclude that the situation of BTC miners is far from the best right now. This is exactly what JPMorgan experts have emphasised.
Bitcoin mining profitability
Since the beginning of August, the growth of the total computing power of miners’ devices in the network has reduced the profitability of BTC mining to a historical minimum. Against this backdrop, shares of large mining companies sagged, giving the palm of superiority in terms of yield to securities of firms from the artificial intelligence sector.
The logic here is simple: miners receive a common "pie", which consists of remuneration per block of 3.125 BTC and user commissions for transactions. Accordingly, the greater the number of participants in the mining of the first cryptocurrency, the smaller is the theoretical earnings of each of them.
At the same time, commissions for transfers in Bitcoin have now fallen to a local minimum due to the lack of high-profile events in the blockchain, which used to be the analogue of NFT based on the Ordinals protocol and the launch of interchangeable tokens on Runes. For example, at the end of Friday, the average cost of a transaction in the BTC network was 90 cents, which directly affects the profitability of mining the first cryptocurrency.
The total capitalisation of the fourteen US mining companies whose shares are tracked by the bank has fallen by 18 per cent since the end of July.
Despite this, the share of US miners in the total hashrate of the Bitcoin network has grown for the fourth month in a row and has already reached a level of 26 per cent. This is a new record, and not on the bright side. Still, experts see it as a growing threat to centralisation, as the concentration of ASIC owners in a certain region creates risks for the chain. For example, they could face problems due to government actions or something similar.
According to CoinDesk’s sources, in the first two weeks of the month, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network increased by about five exaseches per second, or 1 per cent, to an average of 621 exaseches per second.
However, this figure is still 30 exahes per second below pre-halving levels. This means that the activity of computing equipment owners has decreased one way or another.
The price per hash, which shows the profitability of mining, is about 30 per cent below the level from December 2022, and 40 per cent behind the pre-halving level. This momentum has the potential to slow hashrate growth in the near term, experts said.
Recall, Bitcoin’s price fell about 5 per cent after the halving, but is still up 35 per cent since the beginning of the year and 104 per cent over the last year.
The problems of the miners do not care about the big investors, which is why the average Norwegian indirectly owns up to $27 worth of bitcoins as of the first half of 2024. This is a direct result of the new strategy of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund (NBIM), which has previously invested in crypto technology companies.
The $1.7 trillion-asset NBIM fund invests the country’s not insignificant oil revenues on behalf of Norway’s 5.5 million people, Decrypt reported.
K33Research senior analyst Vetle Lunde said that the country’s involvement in the crypto market through its main wealth fund is “hardly a deliberate choice.” In addition, the expert argues that if the country had intended to increase its stake in BTC, it would have made direct investments.
However, such a scenario is not the worst, and what is happening hints at the popularisation of digital assets worldwide.
Instead, the country is increasingly investing in MicroStrategy, Block, Marathon Digital and Coinbase securities. Meanwhile, software company MicroStrategy is currently the largest holder of Bitcoin among publicly traded companies.
As of today, MicroStrategy’s wallets hold 226,500 BTC with $8.3 billion invested. Despite the general drawdown of the cryptocurrency industry, this amount is now valued at over 13.4 billion, which means the giant’s unrealised profits exceed the 5 billion mark.
Norway increased its stake in MicroStrategy from 0.67 per cent to 0.89 per cent in the first half of 2024. This also goes some way to recognising the potential of cryptocurrencies, which Michael Saylor’s company is associated with.
The bitcoin mining situation is not the best right now. However, the network hashrate continues to remain at a high level, indicating that players are interested in the niche. However, due to the April halving of the first cryptocurrency and the very high complexity of mining, small players who cannot afford to mine coins in such conditions and experience stages of volatility in the market are likely to drop out of the industry. Although judging by current trends, the total computing power of the blockchain will continue to grow.