Bitcoin began to show a pronounced decline since the beginning of summer. Still on the first of June, the cryptocurrency was valued at 67 thousand dollars, after which on 5 August it reached a local minimum of 49 thousand.

Daily chart of Bitcoin (BTC) rate

Against this background, BTC loses to gold, which turned out to be more stable and reached its historical maximum last Friday. We are talking about the mark of $2,500 per ounce of metal.

Given what happened in early August, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell to its lowest level since February. That is, over the past few weeks, the cost of the precious metal has proven to be more reliable for capital preservation, Kaiko analysts say.

Ratio of Bitcoin to gold

However, in the interval from the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin appears to be the clear leader, even despite the current market drawdown.

What is happening to Bitcoin?

During the current up cycle, the most tangible boost to the market has been the listing of spot Bitcoin-ETFs in the US. It has had a good effect on the reputation of the digital asset, which has now been contacted by the major US exchanges. As a result, as of today, total net capital inflows into such instruments have reached $17.52 billion, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has become the fastest-growing ETF in the history of the markets.

However, according to experts from the CryptoQuant platform, this factor is no longer enough to further develop the dynamics of the new bullrun in the medium term. That is, the market now needs a new narrative to help drive the industry upwards.

The first disappointing conclusion from analysts is that most metrics around Bitcoin demand are currently showing weakness. There are not many among the largest investors or so-called whales willing to purchase coins on a regular basis.

Cryptocurrency market crash

And although during the market crash on 5 August they actively purchased digital assets, the further subsidence of BTC and other coins showed a lack of demand. That is, the activity of buyers is now clearly not enough to overcome the nearest resistance levels on the chart.

According to representatives of CryptoQuant, large investors have reduced the rate of accumulation of coins just since reaching the last historical maximum in March. Here is a quote on the matter, as cited by Cointelegraph.

The 30-day increase in the number of coins in whale reserves has fallen from 6 per cent in February – the fastest accumulation rate since February 2019 – to just 1 per cent currently.

Whale’s wallet balance and its growth rate

This means that whale reserves are now increasing by an average of 1 per cent per month. Analysts note that this activity is not enough to maintain the demand bar. They continue.

Historically, a monthly increase in whale reserves of more than 3 per cent has been associated with a rise in the price of Bitcoin. That is precisely what is not being seen now.

The problem is that spot Bitcoin-ETFs cannot be a proper alternative to the buying power of the market’s largest investors. Still, the average daily inflow into exchange-traded funds is 1,300 BTC – just a fraction of the total amount of the asset that is redeemed in the market every day.

Inflows and outflows of funds from spot Bitcoin-ETFs in the US

Experts added that a noticeable jump in inflows for ETFs could mitigate the situation a bit and improve the overall atmosphere in the coin niche. Here’s the cue.

A recovery in demand from spot ETFs is necessary to boost overall demand for Bitcoin, potentially leading to a corresponding rally in the value of the main cryptocurrency.

The only category of market players who are “unfaithful” to Bitcoin are the regular holders of the cryptocurrency. These are those investors who once purchased BTC and then never sold the coins. They only continue to accumulate the crypto over the long term, which is something analysts have also noticed.

Despite the slowdown in overall Bitcoin demand growth, regular BTC holders continue to accumulate coins at unprecedented levels. Their total balance is growing at a record pace at 391 thousand BTC per month. Demand from regular holders is growing even faster than in the first quarter of 2024, when the price of Bitcoin managed to exceed the $70 thousand mark.


Such a trend speaks to the confidence of market participants in Bitcoin's ability to overcome the current all-time high at $73,777 from 14 March 2024. Today, the first cryptocurrency lags behind this level by 19.7 percent, which means that the collapse in recent months was still serious.


Demand from regular holders of Bitcoin

For relatively new BTC buyers, the current market situation does not look the most pleasant. Still, Bitcoin’s correction in August led to a rapid increase in the volume of unrealised losses among short-term holders of the coins, many of whom found themselves in the negative.

For the time being, such investors are forced to store bitcoins, waiting out the fall. However, if the situation worsens, some members of this category may panic and start getting rid of coins to protect themselves from further unrealised losses.


It seems that the current activity of buyers is not enough for active continuation of the current bullrun. However, many experts consider this scenario adequate, because historically the coin market starts to grow only six months to a year after the halving of the Bitcoin network. That is, everyone still has time to accumulate digital assets.