What will happen to the Bitcoin exchange rate

Cyrus Yip, head of content at Bybit, said in an interview with Cointelegraph that a collapse below the $50,000 level could well be the main event of September in the market. Here is an expert’s comment on the matter.

The data suggests that this is the path of least resistance. However, things can change very quickly if a new narrative or high-profile news headline emerges – especially in a low liquidity environment.


So far, the key narrative in favour of further improvement in the coin market remains the impending drop in the US benchmark interest rate, which determines the availability of borrowing. However, what is happening with it raises questions.

Nevertheless, the minimum reduction of the rate by 25 basis points may seem insufficient for a positive market, given the fact that it has been rising or remaining at the same level since March 2022. At the same time, a 50 basis point cut would in theory look like a need to rescue the situation in the US economy and a hint of a possible recession, which is also not good for the markets.


Bitcoin BTC rate drop for the week

The fact is that the level of $50,000 on the chart is an important support from the point of view of traders’ psychology. A collapse below this mark is able to accelerate the downtrend, while BTC itself managed to roll back dangerously close to the aforementioned line. Part of the reason for this was more negative data on the labour market in the US non-farming sector.

In particular, last night the Labour Department reported the addition of 142 thousand jobs in the country for the month in the US. The forecasted level was 160 thousand coins, meaning that the actual result was much lower. This, in turn, hints at the weakness of the US economy and the risk of recession.

At the same time, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York John Williams said that it is time to reduce the base lending rate in the economy.

The decision on this matter will be made by the US Fed leadership on 18 September at the next FOMC meeting. For now, however, everything is going to the point where it is almost certain that we can count on a rate cut. Here’s what Williams said.

Current restrictive monetary policy has been effective in rebalancing the economy and reducing inflation. Now that the economy is in balance and inflation is on its way to 2 per cent, it is appropriate to reduce the degree of policy restrictiveness by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate.

Probabilities of a 50 and 25 basis point rate cut on 18 September

In crypto itself, market participants are not yet taking active actions in terms of opening new positions. This is evidenced by the statistics of the volume of open transactions on Bitcoin and Efirium – it was published as part of a joint study by Bybit and Block Scholes.

Analysts noted the following.

The volume of open positions on open-ended options has a steady downward trend. In addition, we observe a parallel trend of trading volume drawdown.

Volumes of open positions of traders on Bitcoin and Efirium

On the chart, a sharp collapse of both indicators took place in early August, when during a large-scale correction, the price of Bitcoin had already fallen below $50,000. Then the collapse of the first cryptocurrency on the exchange Binance stopped at 49 thousand.

Another reason why September is so disliked by analysts is the historical market data. September is considered the worst month of the year for Bitcoin’s returns, as the coin drops an average of 4.69 percent during this period. Only three periods out of twelve recorded BTC growth.

Bitcoin returns by month

In addition, this year added another factor influencing the market – the presidential elections in the United States. They will be held in early November, but already now the Bitcoin exchange rate reacts sensitively to the election race.

Especially negative is the reaction of the main cryptocurrency to any news related to the growth of the rating of the main candidate from the Democrats, Kamala Harris. Unlike her opponent Donald Trump, she still has not expressed a clear position on the regulation of the crypto market.

Given this, experts suspect that in case of victory Harris will continue the policy towards digital assets, which is used by the current administration of US President Joe Biden.

US Vice President Kamala Harris

The gap between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on decentralised betting platform Polymarket has narrowed dramatically tonight. Trump’s chances of winning are now estimated at 51 per cent, while the Democratic candidate’s figure is 48 per cent.

The chances of candidates for the US presidency according to the Polymarket platform

Therefore, at least until November, the crypto market may present surprises in the form of sudden spikes in volatility. Accordingly, traders should be prepared for unexpected changes on the charts and ideally keep a certain stock of stablecoins, if they plan to replenish their stocks of coins and in general count on long-term interaction with this industry.


It appears that there are no serious factors for positivity in the coin niche so far. Crypto continues to fall, the prospect of sharp rate cuts could hint at recession risk, and Trump's chances still don't guarantee his election victory. So the bullrun development will clearly come later.