The U.S. presidential election will be held on 5 November 2024. The favourites among voters are Vice President Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party and former President Donald Trump, representing the Republican Party. A tight contest is expected as both candidates have received strong support. In addition, as of today, their chances of winning are roughly equal.

For example, user activity on Polymarket, a decentralised platform that allows users to bet on a certain future event using cryptocurrency, estimates the chances of Trump and Harris and 47 and 52 percent respectively.

Actual odds of the candidates winning the US presidential election

At the same time, Bernstein analysts previously stated that a Donald Trump victory would unequivocally be a much more favourable event for the niche. Then they noted that this situation will end with the growth of Bitcoin to the zone of 80-90 thousand dollars, well, Harris as President will lead to the collapse of BTC in the zone of 30-40 thousand.

Read more about the version of experts in a separate material.

New forecast on the rate of Bitcoin

According to the head of the research department of the bank, among the above-mentioned factors includes the likely cancellation of Staff Accounting Bulletin-121 (SAB 121). This is a set of rules that effectively prohibits banks from holding digital assets for customers, making it much more difficult to popularise cryptocurrencies in the US and globally.


The situation with banks and cryptocurrencies in the US is changing quite rapidly. At the end of last week, MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor announced credible rumours regarding the fact that "one or more major banks in the US will soon be able to provide bitcoin storage services" for customers. The most likely candidate here is Bank of New York Mellon.


Former US President Donald Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 cryptocurrency conference

Kendrick expects SAB 121 to be cancelled by both Trump and Harris. In addition, the expert expects changes in the leadership of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Kendrick has not forgotten about the negative impact of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on the crypto industry – a potential replacement for Gensler could mean a major jump for the market.


During a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville on 27 July, Donald Trump promised to fire Gary Gensler as SEC chairman on the first day of his new job. At the same time, Kamala Harris is tentatively considering his nomination for Treasury Secretary.


SEC Chairman Gary Gensler

Gary Gensler is remembered in the crypto market for his tough stance on the regulation of digital assets. Under his leadership, the SEC increased oversight of crypto companies and exchanges because many cryptocurrencies could allegedly fall under the definition of securities.

His approach has consisted of numerous lawsuits to ensure crypto projects comply with federal laws, which has drawn criticism from the community for significantly hindering innovation. Still at its core, the SEC never provided an adequate framework for niche regulation that would allow entrepreneurs to avoid fines from the regulator and its attention at the worst possible time.

According to Cointelegraph’s sources, closer to the weekend, the SEC approved for Nasdaq to list and trade options on shares of BlackRock’s exchange-traded fund under the ticker IBIT.

In doing so, Nasdaq officials noted that the exchange will allow options on the Bitcoin-ETF to be traded “in the same manner” as other options, i.e., subject to the same rules. Here’s a quote on the matter.

Options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust instrument will be physically settled with US-style execution. The exchange said that options on IBIT will be subject to the relevant initial and continued listing standards. The exchange’s initial listing standards require, among other things, that the security underlying the listed option be characterised by a significant number of shares outstanding that are widely held and actively traded.

Inflows and outflows of funds from spot Bitcoin-ETFs in the US

Two more factors for the rise in the price of BTC are a slight increase in inflation and positive inflows into Bitcoin-based spot exchange-traded funds. Here’s a quote from Kendrick on the subject.

There will probably be new ETFs popping up relatively quickly. Solana, I’d say, would be the most likely third candidate for an exchange-traded fund.


In late June, VanEck and 21Shares investment funds filed applications to launch spot ETFs based on Solana. So now SOL is really one of the most likely candidates in this context.


US Vice President Kamala Harris

In the context of macroeconomics, the expert shared the following thought.

Ten-year bond yields have surpassed two-year bond yields for the first time in several quarters and this is also a slightly positive story. Inflation expectations have risen while real yields have fallen.

Hourly chart of the Bitcoin BTC exchange rate on the Binance exchange

Finally, Kendrick predicted that the Bitcoin price will reach the $125,000 level by the end of 2024 if former President Trump manages to occupy the White House. However, he also expects the price of BTC to reach an all-time high of $200,000 by the end of 2025, “regardless of who is in the White House.”


As per tradition, let us remind you that all analysts can be wrong, which means this version can also easily fail. With this in mind, traders and investors should traditionally rely solely on their own analyses and capabilities.


Former US President Donald Trump


The version of the Standard Chartered representative is that Bitcoin will be able to gain much more popularity with any US president. Such a scenario seems possible. Still, in 2024, BTC got spot ETFs on US exchanges, despite the dislike of most Democrats, represented by President Joe Biden, for digital assets.