Halving in the Bitcoin network and other PoW cryptocurrencies represents a 50 per cent decrease in the rate of issuance of new coins after a certain number of mined blocks. In the case of BTC, we’re talking about 210,000 blocks, which takes approximately four years to create.

The last halving took place on 20 April 2024, when the reward per Bitcoin block slipped from 6.25 to 3.125 coins. Initially, after the launch of this blockchain in 2009, the reward per block was 50 Bitcoins, which means that the procedure this spring turned out to be the fourth in the history of the cryptocurrency.

The impact of halving on cryptocurrency miners

Thanks to halving, the supply of the first cryptocurrency is increasing at an increasingly lower rate. For example, in mid-August 2024, the volume of bitcoins in circulation has surpassed the 94 per cent mark of the maximum number of cryptocurrency.

However, the last BTC will still be mined tentatively by 2140.

What’s happening to Bitcoin?

Jasper de Maire, head of research at Outlier Ventures, explained the problem in the opening remarks of the company’s report. Here’s a rejoinder on the subject.

Four months after Bitcoin’s halving, we’re seeing worse returns than ever. In this piece, we explain why the halving is no longer having a fundamental impact on the price of BTC and other digital assets. The last time this happened was in 2016. It’s time for market players to abandon the notion of a four-year cycle as the market matures.


To be fair, during previous cycles, coin market growth started at least six months to a year after halving. Accordingly, the current period may be too early to count on the start of the final bullrun phase and talk about any fundamental changes in the crypto's growth pattern.

Some experts believe that the reason for Bitcoin's new record of $73,777 on 14 March 2024 was the launch of spot Bitcoin-ETFs in the US. Yet since their launch, they have attracted billions of dollars in investments that went directly to buying BTC because of the spot nature of such exchange-traded funds.


However, as analysts noted the day before, BTC has been crashing almost every day during the opening of trading on the New York Stock Exchange over the past two weeks. With this in mind, it is clear that spot ETFs for the cryptocurrency are also able to put significant pressure on the coin when market conditions are not the best.

Bitcoin collapse during NYSE opening periods

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In the 125 days since the last halving, the major cryptocurrency has underperformed by about 8 per cent in terms of returns compared to gains in previous cycles. Bitcoin’s price rose 739 per cent in the 125 days after the 2012 halving, 10 per cent after 2016, and 22 per cent after 2020.

Bitcoin’s returns after the halwings

Here’s another screenshot detailing the behaviour of the BTC exchange rate.

Bitcoin’s yield after halwings

The last time halving had a “significant and fundamental impact” on the BTC price was back in 2016, experts say. Since then, miners’ rewards for mining blockchain blocks have become less serious in the context of the entire market and their overall revenue. However, the halving procedure is still associated with the bullrun for many market participants, so the event still carries psychological weight for traders and influences their actions to a certain extent.

According to de Maire, the strongest argument in favour of the halving’s impact on the market is that, with the exception of lowering BTC inflation, the procedure also affects the management of their reserves. However, even in an extreme scenario where all miners instantly sell their block mining rewards, this would have had a market impact of between 1 and 5 per cent until mid-2017.

Today, such a thing only accounts for 0.17 per cent of transaction volume. Accordingly, the changes in the scale of the trend are more than tangible.

Decline in the share of miners’ remuneration per block in total revenue

According to The Block’s sources, Bitcoin’s post-halving price spurt in 2020 was also a coincidence. It occurred during the unprecedented global capital injection after COVID-19, when the US alone increased its money supply by more than 25 per cent.

That season also saw the first wave of hype around decentralised protocols, which took place in the summer of 2020. During that period, various DeFi platforms started to actively develop and attract the attention of investors, who got acquainted with coin borrowing, lending and also farming airdrops. Against the background of what was happening, the value of tokens of such projects increased significantly.

Bitcoin rate growth on the background of the increase in the money supply in the United States

This year, Bitcoin reached a new price record even before the halving. This is an unprecedented event, as this has not happened during previous cycles.

According to de Maire, the argument that the four-year cycle is still in place, and that the ETF approval in January pulled demand higher, is flawed. He continues.

The approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF was a demand catalyst and the halving was a supply catalyst, so they are not mutually exclusive.


Right now, though, demand for shares of spot Bitcoin-ETFs is falling. For example, $37.2 million was withdrawn from them over Wednesday, with the BTC exchange rate behaving badly. And this suggests that buying shares of exchange-traded funds in the spring could indeed be the main catalyst for market growth.


Cryptocurrency market growth for investors

The price of Bitcoin has a significant impact on the entire crypto market and the ability of projects to raise funds. De Maire summarised that it is vital for investors to understand the market drivers and better predict fundraising opportunities.

Additionally, debunking the myth of a four-year cycle in no way suggests that Outlier is bearish on crypto as a whole, meaning they expect the industry and blockchain assets to continue to evolve.


We believe that it is too early to talk about the irrelevance of building a cycle around halving. Still, 2024 was the first year when BTC set a new high price before the procedure, so it may be a trivial exception to the rule. Besides, the last halving took place less than five months ago, which means that the market is in principle invested in the timings of previous cycles in the context of its growth.