What will happen to cryptocurrencies in the US

Here’s one of Lutz’s quotes, published by news outlet CoinDesk.

I think US cryptocurrency companies will move towards consolidation with traditional finance. For example, some of the largest cryptocurrencies in the US in the form of Coinbase, Circle and Kraken are increasingly becoming digital twins of the traditional financial system.

Stephan Lutz, head of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX Group, said

This split means that US cryptocurrency companies will focus on domestic customers, while companies from other countries will prefer to avoid entering the US market. However, this sort of thing has been happening for the past few years as it is.

For example, some centralised exchanges do not contact US users as they require special permissions. In addition, developers of various projects most often do not conduct airdrops for U.S. residents, because in such a case they will face problems due to the attention of regulators like the Securities Commission.

BitMEX itself does not operate in the US – in July, the company pleaded guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act and failing to comply with customer identification (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) requirements between 2015 and 2020. Meanwhile, the exchange’s co-founders Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo and Samuel Reed were fined $30 million for AML violations in 2022.

Arthur Hayes is the former head of crypto exchange BitMEX

According to Lutz, BitMEX is strengthening its position in Asia. He believes the industry has needed specialised regulation within the US for years, but the situation is unlikely to change dramatically before the presidential election in November.

Market institutions in Asia will take advantage of the regulatory confusion in the US.

Unlike the US and the European Union, where virtually everyone has access to the traditional banking system, in Asia there is a division between banking customers – family offices, accredited investors, large companies – and so-called non-bank users, who make up more than half of the continent.

This group needs alternative services like international money transfers from family members working abroad to support relatives at home – a real use case.

Buying cryptocurrency by investors

According to Lutz, outside of the US, the same India could drive the crypto industry in the next ten years. This is relevant if companies are open enough and politicians realise that cryptocurrencies “strengthen their ability to maintain the independence of the monetary system”.

Admittedly, full-fledged national adoption of Bitcoin in many countries still looks like a utopian scenario. BTC is an alternative way to purchase goods and services, but the vast majority of countries do not recognise it as legal tender, so the economic impact of its mass use as a payment instrument remains murky. Only two countries have adopted Bitcoin as a payment instrument – El Salvador and CAR.

In the case of the former, regular purchases have brought the country’s budget an unrecorded profit of $58 million as of today. In addition, the World Bank has noted an improvement in the country’s economy since the adoption of BTC in 2021, thanks to public investment and tourism growth.

El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele

Lyn Alden Investment Strategy founder Lyn Alden believes that the adoption of Bitcoin as a means of payment in other countries will have monumental consequences. Her remarks are cited by Cointelegraph.

I would expect most of the consequences to be positive, but I think Bitcoin has a long time to grow to this level. International trade will improve – especially in regions like Africa and Latin America.

According to Alden, the current debt-based monetary system in countries like the US is incompatible with a sustainable currency along the lines of Bitcoin. She believes the financial system will need to be reformed before BTC can become a mainstream means of buying goods and services.

Alice Liu, lead analyst at CoinMarketCap, noted that the mass adoption of Bitcoin to purchase goods and services is likely to have a “mixed economic impact.” Among the positive effects, Liu highlights increased financial accessibility, easier international transactions and lower payment processing costs. It may also allow some countries to break their dependence on the dollar and gain more control over their economies.

Bitcoin BTC hourly rate chart

Although it also notes that Bitcoin’s current volatility makes price management and financial planning difficult for businesses, which is generally true for all cryptocurrencies with the exception of stablecoins.

It will take serious co-operation from central banks to realise the global project of cryptocurrency adoption. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to resort to such drastic measures.


The position of analysts is that too strict regulation of digital assets in the United States will not allow the industry to develop normally in this country. As a result, crypto there may become a kind of advanced blockchain-based banking system that will be faster, more transparent and more accessible. However, in the event of Donald Trump winning the presidential election, who has been actively supporting the coin niche in recent months, such a negative scenario is unlikely to be relevant.