Why Bitcoin isn’t growing

Zhu’s hypothesis reflects the crypto community’s growing concerns about Bitcoin’s momentum following the latest halving.

Typically, halving years are associated with significant price spikes due to a reduction in new supply in circulation, but 2024 has broken this trend, leaving traders waiting.

The impact of Bitcoin halving on miners


Recall, halving involves reducing the rate of issuance of the first cryptocurrency by half every 210,000 blocks or approximately four years. The last time the procedure took place was on 20 April 2024, when the reward per block dropped from 6.25 to 3.125 coins. It is important to note that halving does not affect the current supply of cryptocurrency in any way, but only reduces the issuance of new coins.

At the same time, 2024 became non-standard in the context of halving. Previously, Bitcoin set historical price highs after this procedure. However, this time it bypassed it for more than a month.


Zhu also attached a chart that illustrates Bitcoin’s historically consistent bullish trends in previous halving years and highlights how the current price dynamics are deviating from the established cycle. It shows that while BTC briefly rose in early 2024, it failed to sustain the upward momentum.

Comparison of Bitcoin’s growth cycles in 2020 and 2024

That is, it ended up trading mostly in a sideways trend from the time it peaked at $73,777 in March until halving.

At the same time, CEX.IO chief analyst Ilya Otchenko noted in an interview with Decrypt that Bitcoin has experienced a much longer post-halving consolidation in the current cycle, which is significantly different from previous industry growth cycles.

The fact that Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the March 2024 halving is a rare occurrence, causing several onchain indicators to deviate from traditional models.

Otchenko noted that by July 2024, 62 per cent of 13 key indicators had entered bearish territory, meaning they hinted at a continued collapse of the digital asset market. Here’s his retort.

This doesn’t necessarily disprove established cycle theory. But it does indicate that the components of the current cycle, in the form of an altcoin growth season or localised bullish trends, may have a different time frame than we are used to seeing.

As of Saturday morning, Bitcoin is trading just below $63,000. The major cryptocurrency is up 3.2 percent over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin owes much of its explosive growth to MicroStrategy, which remains the largest holder of the first cryptocurrency among publicly traded assets.

Overall, it has been actively acquiring bitcoins since August 2020, using loans and capital to maximise returns. The company’s latest purchase last month totalled 7,420 BTC, increasing its total coins under management to 252,220 coins.

That’s about 1.2 percent of the total cryptocurrency supply. Here’s a corresponding ranking of public companies by the number of cryptocurrency at their disposal.

Ranking of public companies by volume of bitcoins in their wallets

MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor argues that Bitcoin is the best asset of the 21st century. It represents a revolutionary form of digital capital, offering tangible protection against inflation over long time horizons and an excellent tool for storing value over the long term.

In his opinion, the volatility of BTC attracts investors who expect high returns. And over time, the first cryptocurrency will become a must-have for institutional and retail portfolios.

MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor

Under Saylor’s leadership, the company is showing confidence in its own strategy, but there is a logical question here. If the strategy proves to be correct and MicroStrategy grows into a large company with hundreds of billions of dollars in bitcoins, what will be the end result for the operations giant?

Saylor sees MicroStrategy as a Bitcoin bank dedicated to creating cryptocurrency-based market instruments. They will be represented by stocks, convertible bonds, debt instruments and preferred shares, Michael believes. He is quoted by The Block as saying.

It is the most valuable asset in the world. The ultimate goal is to become the leading Bitcoin bank, or should I say financial company in this area. If we have $20 billion in convertible shares, $20 billion dllar in preferred shares, $10 billion in debt and, say, $50 billion in debt instruments, we will have $100-150 billion in bitcoins.

Michael Saylor at MicroStrategy’s company presentation

The company’s strategy is based on a long-term belief in cryptocurrency as the best deflationary vehicle. Bitcoin currently represents 0.1 per cent of global financial capital, and Michael Saylor predicts that figure will rise to 7 per cent.

Such a thing assumes a price of $13 million per BTC by 2045. If the U.S. capital markets allow MicroStrategy to raise funds through loans, equity and other instruments, the company will be happy to expand and arbitrage between the dollar capital market and the crypto industry.


Bitcoin's behaviour in 2024 is markedly different from previous years. All the same, this time the cryptocurrency for the first time updated the record of value even before the halving, well, and now the absence of a pronounced trend is also gradually approaching the record. However, the approaching US presidential election will clearly add volatility to the niche.


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