Why the Bitcoin exchange rate isn’t rising

According to Cointelegraph’s sources, analysts are still expecting the fulfilment of a good scenario in the long term despite the disappointing conclusions. Here is their commentary on the matter.

Although early token holders and whales selling BTC have kept prices in the same range since March, the outlook remains positive.

Bitcoin’s changing value in 2024

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, explained exactly what could have the biggest impact on BTC in the next six to twelve months. Of course, the main reasons were what’s happening in the world and the global economy.

This is the acceleration of economic growth in the U.S., while the Fed continues to cut the rate due to lower inflation, and corporate profits in the U.S. remain at high levels.


As a reminder, in September the US Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate, which determines the cost of financial borrowing, for the first time in four years. This reduces pressure on the economy and, in addition, encourages investors to look for new instruments to invest capital, as traditional instruments like Treasury bills are sagging in yields. And cryptocurrencies are also on the radar of capital holders.


US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

The report emphasises that whale activity has also been an important factor driving BTC’s performance throughout the year. So-called whales, or investors with more than 1,000 BTC in capital, had a significant impact on the market between April and August, the analysts note. They continue.

As we approached the peak of the bullish trend in February-March 2024, we saw a significant influx of whale coins into exchanges, indicating their intention to sell assets.

New token unlocks

The actions of major market participants meant that BTC never gained momentum for a new round of bullrun. In addition to the whale of a sell-off, the unlocking of new tokens has added pressure to the market, with $35 billion worth of tokens unlocked since March.

It's about increasing the actual supply of a particular crypto asset. It can be a stable growth of the indicator due to the formation of new coins during the creation of blocks and the release of the corresponding reward to validators or the actual unlocking of tokens for investors. Still, large players, when investing in serious projects, most often receive crypto in portions according to the schedule. Thus, their possible pressure on the market is significantly reduced.

Inflow and outflow of funds from spot Bitcoin-ETFs in the U.S.

In any case, the above resulted in an increase in the supply of popular tokens, which did not contribute to the positivity in what is happening with their rates.

Yet despite the influx of new tokens and high bear activity among the whales, the flow of funds into spot cryptocurrency ETFs has helped stabilise the market, analysts said. It’s quite possible that if these Bitcoin- and Efirium-based instruments hadn’t appeared in the U.S. this year, the market collapse would have been far more widespread.

Long-term optimism about BTC and gold was also expressed by CryptoQuant experts. They noted that the yield on short-term U.S. Treasury bills with a maturity of up to three months began to fall after the Fed cut the interest rate by half a percentage point on 18 September.

Gold rose in value by almost 5 per cent over the same period. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin is also in a position to benefit from the recent decline in Treasury bill yields, as investors now have an additional reason to get in touch with digital assets and alternative investments in general. Here’s their rejoinder, as quoted by The Block.

In 2008, when 13-week Treasury bill yields began to decline, the price of gold soared from $590 to a peak of $1,900 an ounce. In 2024, a similar trend is occurring, with gold rising from $2,000 to nearly $2,700. Bitcoin is often thought of as “digital gold” and could follow a similar path.


As a reminder, Bitcoin does resemble gold in some characteristics. For example, its maximum supply is limited, well, and the rate of cryptocurrency issuance is decreasing over time.


Gold and Bitcoin

The decline in US Treasury bill yields is fuelling the popularity of capital shelter assets like gold, which has traditionally fulfilled this purpose. However, this is all part of a larger macroeconomic picture, experts say.

The decline in yields often coincides with other factors such as recessions and changes in money supply (M2).

Changes in the value of gold in 2024

During the 2007-2009 recession, the M2 money supply increased significantly, which increased demand for assets to preserve the value of capital like gold. Here’s the analysts’ rejoinder.

The pandemic led to an even more dramatic increase in the money supply, fuelling demand for assets along the lines of Bitcoin, which governments can’t easily print.

So in the long run, the market has another major factor to drive growth. The crypto industry has already become so massive that what happens in the macro economy directly affects it. The reason for this is the reaction of traders who are actively watching the events in the world.


Analysts believe that the market collapse after the records of Bitcoin and other coins in spring became more significant due to the sharp increase in the supply of altcoins, the scale of which is noticeably higher than BTC. However, the niche managed to maintain its position thanks to the influx of capital through spot ETFs on the first cryptocurrency. So the launch of such instruments at the beginning of the year definitely played its role in the scale of the industry.