Recall, Polymarket allows you to bet in cryptocurrency on a certain event in the future. And it can be not only elections, but also sporting events and much more.

The most popular events on which Polymarket users make bets

As of today, Polymarket users estimate the probability of Donald Trump’s victory at 63.9 per cent. At the same time, the prospects of success for Kamala Harris are 36.1 per cent.

Current chances of victory of candidates for the US presidential election on the Polymarket platform

Who will win the US presidential election

An account under the nickname GCorttell93 bought 4.5 million contracts or shares on Donald Trump’s victory, spending $3 million in a short period of time. However, due to the peculiarities of the orderbook on Polymarket, part of the transactions worth $275,000 was executed at a 99 per cent odds, which is significantly higher than the actual odds of victory of the former US president at 63 per cent.

Former US President Donald Trump

In other words, GCorttell93 entered the transaction from the buy side with such a large volume of funds that Polymarket simply did not have the proper number of sellers to create a balance. As a result, the account bought the stock with a 99.7 percent ratio for the aforementioned $275,000.

As a reminder, the higher the odds of a stock on a given betting platform, the more likely the event is to materialise. This also means that in case of Trump's victory, this amount will bring practically no benefit to the trader.

Stock purchases by the account

The rest of the bets were made at different prices. For example, the tranche of $ 129 thousand went in at the odds of 65.9 cents, while the transfer of $ 102 thousand was credited at the odds of 62.7 cents. Accordingly, even now it will be quite difficult for a trader to calculate his own earnings in case of a positive outcome of the event.

According to Coindesk’s sources, on Polymarket the share price for any outcome reflects the market’s current view of the probability of that outcome. If a share of the outcome “Yes” to an event is priced at $0.60, the market interprets this as a 60 per cent probability of the event materialising.

The 100 per cent probability of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election on Polymarket

However, these odds are dynamic and change with each trade, because Polymarket works on the basis of an order book on the Polygon blockchain, which lists all the orders to buy and sell shares for a particular outcome. The system is not much different from trading on a centralised crypto exchange, so it will be useful to read about the structure of a traditional exchange stack.

As a reminder, a staker allows you to form the price and provides liquidity of a certain asset. Users can place limit orders, where they indicate the price that suits them to buy or sell. If on the other side there is no one willing to conduct a transaction with the specified conditions, such orders may not be executed immediately. In this case, the rate of the asset will be moved by operations at the current value or so-called market trades.

Total trading volumes on Polymarket

When a trader buys a share with a ratio at a notional level of 55 per cent, its value is approximately 55 cents. If the final outcome of the event matches the contents of the stock – for example, Trump shares are bought and Donald wins the election – then the value of the contracts will automatically be set at $1, which corresponds to a 100 per cent probability of the event having already happened. This is how traders make money on the difference in odds.

The US election is just one of the most popular reasons to bet on Polymarket. There are dozens of other major outcomes that punters bet on on the platform. For example, the value of Bitcoin on a certain date or geopolitical events at a certain point in the world.

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Given Trump’s surge in popularity, the Polymarket team conducted an internal investigation. According to its results, no traces of market manipulation were found. The relevant replica is cited by The Block.

Based on the results of our investigation, we understand that this person is taking a directional stance based on personal views on the election. Additionally, our investigation has not uncovered any information to suggest that this user has manipulated or attempted to manipulate the market. This user has agreed not to open new accounts without notification.

Volumes of open positions on Polymarket

Polymarket’s response addresses the concerns of some cryptocurrency enthusiasts that a number of accounts on the platform may be owned by a single interested individual or organisation. That is, with the help of large capital injections, it is trying to shape public opinion by creating a supposedly “false picture”.

According to Kaiko analyst Adam Morgan McCarthy, in theory Polymarket is banned for US users, but the blocking can be circumvented with a VPN. However, the current odds should not reflect the real intentions of American voters one way or another.

Although the above statistics are similar to the 61 to 31 percent odds on regulated prediction platform Kalshi, while PredictIt users are betting with a total of 59 to 45 percent in Trump’s favour.


Apparently, the reason for the current situation was a banal lack of liquidity for large orders. In general, this is normal for platforms that use such a pricing principle. Therefore, the trader is unlikely to have spent his own money just to create the appearance of a convincing victory of Trump in the upcoming election on 5 November.


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