Today, Donald Trump is seen as the more likely candidate to win the US presidential election according to data from the Polymarket platform. Users of the decentralised betting platform estimate the probability of his success at almost 60 percent.

The probability of victory for US presidential candidates according to Polymarket data

Kamala Harris’ score is in the 40 per cent zone.

The impact of cryptocurrencies on politics?

The aforementioned survey was conducted among 1,004 adult respondents, Cointelegraph reported. 16 per cent of them said that how they feel about crypto is “extremely or strongly important” to them in a future vote.

Accordingly, these people are very likely to vote on 5 November for a candidate who actively supports the digital asset industry and would promote its development.


In the current election campaign, such a candidate is Donald Trump. Earlier, he became the first US president to conduct a transaction in Bitcoin. Along with this, he has promised to fire Gary Gensler from the position of chairman of the Securities Commission, approve an adequate regulatory framework for crypto, and stop the US government from selling previously confiscated coins.


Polling data

The poll was conducted among both Republican fans and Democrat supporters. At least 25 and 21 per cent of people on each side respectively said that a candidate’s stance on cryptocurrencies would have a positive impact on their likelihood of voting for him or her.

Perianne Boring, founder and CEO of the Digital Chamber, responded to the developments by saying that the results should be a “wake-up call for policymakers.” Here’s a comment on that.

With a slight edge expected in key political races, this bloc of voters could change the balance. Voters are sending a clear signal – they want sensible and balanced regulation that protects consumers without stifling innovation.


During the week, Kamala Harris advocated for adequate regulation of digital assets. However, she emphasised directly on protecting black male investors, which raised questions from coin fans.


U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris

The poll also found that two in five black voters cited a candidate’s cryptocurrency policy as an important criterion in deciding who to support in the election. This is more than double the rate among white voters.

A majority of Republican and Democratic respondents also said support for the crypto industry should be at least a mid-level priority for the new president and Congress.

Survey data

The favourites in the US election race are former President Donald Trump from the Republicans and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris from the Democrats.

As we’ve already noted, Trump has been actively in favour of proper regulation of the crypto market since at least spring 2024. But Harris’ position on crypto only became more or less clear the day before, although analysts still wanted more specificity from Kamala.

Outside of the US, investors should pay attention to the tense situation in the Middle East, according to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes. He published a new post on his own blog.

According to the expert, “oil prices will skyrocket” if large deposits of the resource are attacked in the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel. Here’s a rejoinder to that.

This would pull the price of all other energy sources up, as countries with oil shortages would use other resources to power their economies. What will happen to the price of Bitcoin? It will rise. BTC is energy stored in digital form.

As is tradition, we note that Hayes has been wrong in his predictions many times before. The most famous failure here was expecting ETH to grow to $10,000 by the end of 2022 if the Etherium blockchain successfully upgraded to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm. And although the update took place, the cryptocurrency's exchange rate is still not even close to its all-time high from November 2021.

Arthur Hayes, former head of crypto exchange BitMEX, said

The profitability of BTC mining will be governed by the change in difficulty. However, if the hash rate goes down, the difficulty of mining also goes down. This in turn makes it easier for new entrants to mine Bitcoin at higher energy prices.

Hayes cited the historical example of a large increase in commodity prices from 1973 to 1982 during the oil crises caused by the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution. The price of oil then rose by 412 per cent, while gold rose by 380 per cent.

A daily chart of the value of gold on exchanges

Bitcoin did not yet exist during the oil crises, but it has shown a notable correlation with commodities during periods of inflation. Gold just this week hit another all-time high in price, which hints at investors’ priorities in the current conditions in the markets.


The analysts' verdict is clear - cryptocurrencies are becoming an increasingly important topic nationwide, and this trend is sure to gain momentum. With this in mind, we can assume that politicians will find themselves interested in pushing for the right bills to regulate digital assets. This will clearly have a positive effect on their popularity.
.

For more interesting stuff, check out our crypto chat room. Be sure to join to keep up to date with the situation inside the niche of coins and try to make money on it.