The level of $ 200 thousand for Bitcoin on this bullrun is a popular benchmark among analysts. In particular, such a version is supported by Bernstein experts, who, among other things, consider the specified level “conservative”.

Analysts believe that the chances of growth of digital assets are explained by a combination of many factors. Firstly, in September 2024, for the first time in four years, the US Federal Reserve moved to loosen restrictions in the economy by lowering the base interest rate. Thanks to this, investors will be forced to look for new assets to invest in as traditional instruments will gradually become less profitable.

Secondly, next week the US will hold elections for the President, Senate and House of Representatives. So far, it is considered that the most likely scenario will be the victory of Donald Trump and the Republicans, who in recent years have supported adequate regulation of the coin sphere.

Former US President Donald Trump

The combination of the above factors makes cryptocurrencies a more attractive asset category than ever before.

What does it take for Bitcoin to grow?

On his page, Hogan mentioned that a prominent investment advisor approached him with a question. He asked if we need to wait for a dollar collapse for Bitcoin’s price to rise to 200k in dollar terms.

The Bitwise representative’s answer was negative, with Hogan attributing it to the following two reasons.

Investing in Bitcoin means two bets for the investor at once. The first is that Bitcoin will succeed in establishing itself as the new global instrument for store of value. The second is that governments will abuse conventional currencies and increase demand for Bitcoin-like assets.


Recall, the rate of issuance of BTC is fixed, well, and the total supply of cryptocurrency increases by 3.125 coins with each block. In addition, this figure decreases by 50 per cent every 210,000 blocks or approximately four years.

Such a thing is very different from the monetary policies of different nations. In addition, due to the actions of central banks, people regularly suffer from inflation, which cannot happen in a similar way with Bitcoin.


Bitwise Investment Director Matt Hogan

According to Cointelegraph’s sources, Bitwise’s investment director has looked at each of the reasons separately.

Firstly, Bitcoin’s capitalisation is now equal to about 7 per cent of gold, whose value is $18 trillion. If Bitcoin as an asset class becomes more “mature” and grows to a notional 50 per cent capitalisation level, the value of the cryptocurrency will rise above the $400,000 mark.

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Secondly, the market for assets “for capital preservation” is constantly growing due to the excesses of governments who use national currencies for their own purposes in every possible way. If this market triples in size and Bitcoin holds its share, its value will reach at least $200,000.

Here’s another tweet by Hogan on the subject.

Importantly, these arguments fit together. If Bitcoin “matures” and the market for its asset type doubles, the value of the major cryptocurrency will quickly reach a seven-figure sum. I think this is ultimately the most likely scenario.


At the moment, the popularity of cryptocurrencies continues to expand. In particular, the day before, Florida's chief financial officer Jimmy Patronis proposed buying bitcoins at the state level as part of pension plans. According to the manager, the digital asset can provide good investment results for local residents.


Gold rate per ounce

Amid growing uncertainty in the global economy and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, demand for more traditional assets to store value has risen sharply. On 29 October, the price of gold set a new all-time high at $2,778 per ounce.

In addition, the ongoing devaluation of the dollar could become a major part of United States industrial policy after the presidential election. They will be held on November 5, and now the probability of victory of the Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is favourably disposed towards cryptocurrencies, is growing.


Matt Hogan's point of view makes us re-evaluate our own expectations of the current bullrun. Still, judging by the duration of previous growth phases, this cycle still has plenty of time to develop. Accordingly, the most active period of investor influx should take place later.


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