Trump has positioned himself as a candidate who supports cryptocurrencies, accepting them as donations for his campaign and wanting to turn the US into the world's "crypto capital". He has previously promised to appoint a new SEC chairman who is friendly to the digital asset niche. He is also in favour of creating a national reserve in bitcoins and against government sales of coins that were previously confiscated from criminals.

Another politician became the first president to conduct a transaction on the Bitcoin network. This happened in the second half of September in a New York City pub called PubKey Bitcoin. Read more about the situation in a separate article.

As of today, users of decentralised betting platform Polymarket estimate Trump’s chances of winning at 53.6 percent. At the same time, Kamala Harris’ figure is 45.7 per cent.

The candidates’ chances of winning the US presidential election

This gap is indeed the maximum between the candidates.

Changes in the positions of the candidates in the US presidential election

US elections and cryptocurrencies

Harris did not mention cryptocurrencies at all in her speeches or statements until recently. It wasn’t until September that she made general comments about her willingness to support crypto businesses while protecting consumers.

She has also stated that the U.S. should emerge as a leader in blockchain, and called digital assets part of her vision of an “opportunity economy.”

Analysts at Bernstein believe Bitcoin will rise in the long term regardless of the election results. It will do so against a backdrop of lower benchmark interest rates, the ongoing US budget deficit and unprecedented debt levels.

Former US President Donald Trump at a Pubkey bar

However, the short-term reaction of coin holders to the election results could still be significant. Here’s a commentary from analysts cited by The Block.

Trump’s victory will be an additional positive factor for Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. If Trump wins, we expect Bitcoin to reach a new high around $80-90 thousand. In case Harris wins, we expect BTC to fall to a new yearly low in the range of 40 thousand in the short term.

At the same time, analysts expect that the price of Bitcoin will continue to react to fluctuations in the chances of candidates in the election. In this case, any successes of Donald Trump’s team will be perceived positively, but the growing popularity of Kamala Harris is able to lead to local corrections.

US Vice President Kamala Harris

Bitwise investment director Matt Hogan shares the opinion of experts from Bernstein. Earlier, he confirmed that the US election results, the state of the economy and the lack of major surprises in the crypto industry remain the three key factors that influence Bitcoin’s probability of taking the $80,000 level by the end of 2024.

According to sources, Bitwise analysts predicted Bitcoin would double in value at the end of 2023, citing the approval of spot Bitcoin-ETFs and the fourth halving in the cryptocurrency’s history as catalysts for growth. Ultimately, the advent of exchange-traded funds based on the first coin resulted in net capital inflows of over $18 billion and incredible demand for shares of such ETFs in the spring of 2024.

Hogan once again referenced this forecast. Here’s his comment.

The Democratic Party has different views on cryptocurrency, ranging from complete opposition to deep support. The problem over the past four years has been that the opposing wing has controlled policy and appointments to government departments, creating a hostile environment for the sector.

Bitwise platform investment director Matt Hogan

However, one should not associate the industry’s development solely with the US political arena, the expert notes.

Bitcoin does not need politicians to develop. It just needs them to stay out of the way. And unless there is a complete victory for the Democrats in both houses of Congress and the White House, I suspect they will take a more neutral stance towards the industry.

Finally, the last condition for Bitcoin to rise above $80,000 this year is a period without major surprises in the crypto industry. The analyst added that these could include significant hacker attacks, outright hostile laws or collapses of major projects.


The forecast of Bernstein analysts is only one of the possible scenarios of events in the industry. However, so far, everything points to the fact that Donald Trump's victory will indeed be more favourable for the crypto niche compared to the success of Kamala Harris. The latter has been the Vice President of the United States for over three years and during that time she has not tried to defend Bitcoin and other coins from the attacks of the SEC and its chairman Gary Gensler. So we can assume that she is happy with this approach to the market.