Polymarket platform has closed the polls on the US election. How much money was bet on Donald Trump?
Decentralised betting platform Polymarket has closed its prediction market for the US presidential race. Its winner has been officially declared Republican Donald Trump, with the platform’s representatives citing information from Associated Press, FOX News and NBC news outlets in the announcement. Trump was leading among Polymarket users for much of the time before the election, although the accuracy of the platform’s predictions is often criticised in the industry. Still, it can essentially be used to manipulate audience sentiment – though it will cost a lot of money.
The importance of a successful election for the Republicans was noted by Brian Armstrong, head of Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States. According to him, the renewed Congress can be considered the most friendly to the sphere of coins for all time of its existence.
Still, judging by the numbers, at least 219 state representatives who support the coin industry have passed into Congress. Here is the corresponding image, where pro-crypto candidates in the House of Representatives and Senate are marked in green.
Politicians who do and don’t support cryptocurrencies in the revamped U.S. Congress
And this is Armstrong’s rejoinder on the subject.
Cryptocurrency supporters made their voices heard loudly today – across party lines and in key elections across the country. Americans are taking a keen interest in cryptocurrency and demanding clear and understandable rules for digital assets. We look forward to working with the new Congress to make them a reality.
Thank you to everyone who was on the side of crypto today. We made it happen!
The US election and cryptocurrencies
On Election Day, users of the Polymarket platform gave Trump a 62 per cent chance of winning the presidential race, compared to 38 per cent for Kamala Harris. At the same time, the difference between the candidates according to national polls was negligible: it was about 1 per cent with a fluctuating bias towards Harris.
Newly elected US President Donald Trump
It’s too early to summarise Trump’s overall rise in popularity, but we can already say that cryptocurrency owners played a significant role in his victory. One way or another, since the spring of 2024, Trump has been delighting fans of digital assets with attractive promises.
These included the development of an adequate regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, the creation of reserves from previously confiscated coins by the US government, assistance to local miners by reducing the cost of electricity against the background of increasing its generation, as well as the dismissal of the chairman of the Securities Commission Gary Gensler.
The latter was appointed by current US President Joe Biden in 2021 and has caused a lot of problems for the industry – including preventing blockchain companies from interacting with local banks.
Transaction volumes on Polymarket
Unlike Trump, Kamala Harris is hardly remembered for any stance on crypto. Instead, she has limited herself to general remarks about encouraging crypto businesses and protecting consumers during her public speeches of several sentences in length.
It is possible that in this case, the lack of specifics played against Democrats, as Harris was frankly a less attractive option for crypto fans.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris
According to The Block’s sources, bets on Polymarket’s political markets topped the $3 billion mark by Election Day, of which about $1.3 billion went to Trump and $822 million to Harris. The rest of the money was bet on other potential candidates who had entered the race earlier in the day.
Polymarket’s prediction accuracy leaves much to be desired. Because of the platform’s relatively low liquidity, bets on candidates can be manipulated if those willing to bet have a few million dollars. Even the platform team itself has been listed as a suspect for manipulation, although in the end there was no convincing evidence of this.
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For the owners of cryptocurrencies and related assets, it is the actual outcome that matters. After Trump’s victory, the value of Bitcoin took the level of $75,407 in trading on Binance, setting a new all-time high.
15-minute chart of the Bitcoin BTC exchange rate
Shares of the largest corporate BTC holder MicroStrategy (MSTR) added 12 per cent in value, approaching the $267 mark.
15-minute chart of the MSTR exchange rate
As of today, MicroStrategy owns 252,220 BTC worth the equivalent of $18.8 billion. Accordingly, the company’s investors’ reaction is also driven by positive expectations about the future of the cryptocurrency market under the new government in the US.
Shares of Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange, rose by about 12 per cent on election day. Here’s a related chart.
15-minute chart of the COIN exchange rate
Finally, the securities of electric car maker Tesla, whose CEO Ilon Musk actively supported Trump during the election campaign, jumped 15 per cent.
15-minute chart of the TSLA rate
And here are the current exchange rates of the top cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation. The best result for the day here was given out by Solana SOL, whose value rose by 11 per cent in the last 24 hours.
Actual rates of cryptocurrencies as of today
All this allows us to say that participants in the financial markets consider this outcome to be positive. Well, the expectations from Trump’s victory are positive.
Representatives of financial markets assessed the results of today's elections. If Trump makes his election promises a reality, then the situation of the crypto industry will be many times better than it was during the last four years. So the euphoria in the niche is easy enough to understand.
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