At the end of October, Bernstein experts have already commented on the prospects of Bitcoin, taking into account what is happening in the world. Then they confirmed the version about the growth of BTC up to 200 thousand dollars next year. Moreover, this version was characterised as “conservative”.

How much will Bitcoin cost?

The main conclusion on the future price of Bitcoin in the long term from the representatives of Bernstein remains the same. In their opinion, the main cryptocurrency will grow to 200 thousand dollars by the end of 2025, regardless of the results of today’s elections in the United States.

Experts predictably see Republican Donald Trump as a candidate more friendly to crypto. Still, this year he has been remembered for a lot of positive promises for fans of digital assets.

Former US President Donald Trump

In particular, Trump plans to approve an adequate framework for regulating digital assets, stop selling government confiscated coins and create a reserve from them, and fire Gary Gensler as chairman of the Securities Commission.

At the same time, Democrat Kamala Harris made almost no mention of Bitcoin at all during the rally. Some fear that Harris may continue the Biden administration’s hawkish policy on crypto, The Block reported.

Actual probability of victory for candidates in the U.S. presidential election according to Polymarket data

Bernstein believes that the victory of none of the candidates is not predetermined, well, and the outcome of the election will again decide the result of the vote in the so-called swing states.

If Trump wins, the first cryptocurrency will overcome the historical highs and reach the range of 80-90 thousand dollars in the run-up to the inauguration day on 20 January 2025. However, if Harris wins, BTC is able to fall all the way down to $50 thousand over the same period of time before a trend recovery occurs.

Earlier Bernstein analysts predicted a much more noticeable correction in case of victory of the candidate from the Democrats. In particular, they counted on a rapid drop in the value of Bitcoin in the range of 30 to 40 thousand dollars in such a scenario.

The collapse of the cryptocurrency market

There is also an opinion that Harris’ victory could be positive for Etherium. Allegedly, the upside is that Kamala will continue the strict regulatory policy of the past administration, with the listing of new exchange-traded funds based on Solana being impossible under such conditions. Therefore, ETH will supposedly lose a key competitor in the context of so-called ETFs.

However, this theory seems unlikely. Firstly, ETFs on Efirium can still be considered a failure, because from the launch until today they have recorded a net outflow of 542 million dollars, in addition, the total amount of transactions with the instrument is quite low against the background of Bitcoin. Secondly, Solana has many users who have already appreciated the convenience of fast transactions at low fees, which happened without a SOL-based exchange-traded fund.

Bernstein analysts call what is happening a “zero-sum game”, where the amount of earnings of some players is the loss of others. In their opinion, the constructive stance of the new SEC leadership will open up opportunities for all crypto-assets other than Bitcoin. Still, the utility of blockchains like Efirium and Solana depends on favourable regulation of stablecoins, tokenisation of assets and classification of cryptocurrencies by the SEC leadership.

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Data from exchange Deribit shows Bitcoin’s implied volatility index rose above 64 per cent year-on-year, the highest since July. Implied volatility measures expected price fluctuations over a given period – in this case 30 days – and gives an indication of how much market participants believe an asset’s chart will fluctuate.

Bitcoin BTC volatility changes

Overall, investors are preparing for potential uncertainty ahead of the announcement of the vote results. The CEO of crypto exchange StealthEX, Maria Carola, expressed the following opinion on what is happening in the market in an interview with Decrypt.

BTC is unlikely to see an increase in volatility in the near future, but the index could increase already after the US presidential election – especially if the results turn out to be contradictory.

According to Karola, the price of BTC is in a position to sag if the election results are controversial and lead to further proceedings. And a New York Times/Siena College poll released Sunday reflects just such a situation: 48 per cent of the vote for Kamala Harris versus 47 per cent for Donald Trump.

New York Times/Siena College poll data ahead of the U.S. presidential election

Such political uncertainty has historically affected Bitcoin. In 2016 and 2020, BTC fell 10.2 and 6.1 percent before the election, respectively, before rising to higher levels after the election.

That said, it’s worth noting that as of today, the first cryptocurrency has come closer than ever to its exchange rate high compared to previous periods before the US presidential election. In other words, investors’ demand for digital assets is enviable.

Bitcoin’s position before the US presidential election


The US presidential election will definitely affect the digital asset industry. And although prominent industry representatives are confident that Bitcoin will set new price highs with any outcome of the vote, it will still affect the rate and time period of growth of the crypto. So it's worth keeping a close eye on the situation today.

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