What will happen to cryptocurrency in 2025?

Such an opinion was shared by trader, investor and former head of the crypto exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes. He has already traditionally outlined his thoughts in a long essay, which this time is called “Trump’s Truth”.

Hayes’ key message is that crypto owners’ expectations of Trump’s ascension to the presidency are overstated. Still, the politician does not have a magic wand that could instantly change the situation with the regulation of digital assets in the U.S. – it could take at least a year.

Newly elected US President Donald Trump

Here’s a rejoinder on the matter, as quoted by Cointelegraph.

There is a huge gap between crypto investors’ high expectations of how quickly Trump can turn things around and reality. Trump has no easy and politically acceptable solutions for quick change. By January 20, the market will realise that it has at most a year to take real action. This realisation will trigger a massive sell-off in cryptocurrencies and assets related to Trump 2.0.


It's important to note that Arthur Hayes has previously been majorly wrong about price predictions for cryptocurrencies. For example, two years ago, he publicly expected Etherium ETH to grow to $10,000 by the end of 2022 if it successfully upgraded to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm.

Although the upgrade happened, the coin ended that year at $1.1 thousand. Well, its local high since then was a recent rise above 4 thousand. So Hayes could easily be wrong this time too.

Former head of crypto exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes

Arthur recalled that Trump previously talked about wanting to turn the US into the cryptocurrency capital of the world. Although the politician may still eventually achieve this goal, there are no tools for such a thing in the short term.

Moreover, the trader expects tangible problems for the president after the elections in 2026. As Arthur believes, at that time, the Republicans may lose their dominance in power due to impatient voters.

He continues.

The market believes that Trump and his team are capable of instant economic and political miracles. However, the problems that led to Trump’s rising popularity have been accumulating for decades. Therefore, there are no instant solutions, no matter how Ilon Musk replicates on Platform X.

The bottom line is that it’s almost unrealistic for Trump to meet the expectations of his base enough to prevent Democrats from taking back control of both houses in 2026. People are impatient because they are desperate. Trump is a shrewd politician and understands his audience well.

Such a prediction seems too long term to seriously count on. Still, Trump hasn’t yet taken office one way or another and hasn’t had a chance to show himself in office. So far he’s only picked people for key positions, many of whom have tentatively turned out to be good choices for the coin industry.

Hayes is also sceptical about the prospect of a national Bitcoin reserve, which would initially consist of 200,000 coins confiscated by authorities earlier. According to him, the target reserve of one million BTC may not even be formed in the end, but that won’t be a problem.

The former head of crypto exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes

Still, the current news about such a probability is already creating pressure from buyers who want to re-insure themselves and get ahead of the various governments in case of anything. The replica is cited by Decrypt.

While I don’t believe the US government will buy Bitcoin, it has no bearing on my optimistic price forecast. Ultimately, gold devaluation creates dollars that must find use in real goods, services, or financial assets. We know empirically that the fiat currency price of BTC is rising faster than the global supply of dollars amid its limited volume and the declining number of new coins in circulation.

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With that in mind, Hayes said that the Maelstrom investment fund under his management will close some positions before the inauguration in order to reopen them at a lower price afterwards.

The entrepreneur believes this idea is justified because right now long-term investors are “not investing enough for the rest of the bull market” and many investors are “selling too early.” All of this sets the stage for a longer bullrun.

That said, though, Arthur is willing to “admit defeat if the bull market sweeps through the 20 number.” In that case, Hayes’ team would go into bullrun mode.

Bullrun in the cryptocurrency market

It’s worth adding that the investor is often wrong in his predictions. Earlier in September, he admitted that his predictions over the past year have only come true by 25 per cent – he called such a result “pretty shitty for the average person”.

Yet Hayes still claims to be on the plus side of the trade because he is tapping into “long-term macroeconomic trends”.


The conclusion of the situation is clear: Arthur Hayes' version has a right to exist, but it can easily fail. Therefore, investors should take this perspective into account, but at the same time be guided by their own decisions. This option turns out to be the most rational in the long term.
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