What will happen to Bitcoin after Trump’s victory

Arthur Hayes suggests that the cryptocurrency market will peak during the current bullrun in the second half of March, that is, over the next 2.5 months. The industry will then move into a major correction that is in a position to launch a so-called bear trend.

Hayes’ new essay titled “Sasa” begins with the story that heavy snowfall in Hokkaido has led to the premature opening of ski resorts. However, local skiers should be afraid of sasa, the Japanese word for a certain variety of bamboo. It has thin stems and very sharp leaves that can easily cut the skin of holidaymakers. This is why the slopes become extremely dangerous until there is a sufficient layer of snow.

Arthur Hayes is the former head of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX

In this way, he compared the situation to what is happening in the coin market, whose current correction occurred earlier than the trader had hoped. According to Hayes’ version, the market crash he predicted after Trump’s inauguration began in mid-December and is still ongoing.

So what should happen next according to the updated forecast? Arthur expects positivity among crypto investors after Trump takes office, because in the first three months of 2025 we could see a surge in dollar liquidity. Well, that will offset the disappointment due to the realisation that the new president won’t be able to change the regulatory environment for digital assets and create a national Bitcoin reserve in one fell swoop.

Here’s a rejoinder on the matter cited by Decrypt.

The sass of disappointment caused by the Trump team’s unfulfilled promises of legislation in support of cryptocurrencies and businesses may be offset by the extremely favourable situation of dollar liquidity. Its growth in the first quarter is able to reach $612 billion.

At the same time, the weakening of the dollar is traditionally good news for cryptocurrencies, because in such conditions investors are looking for alternative assets for the subsequent exit from the world’s main fiat currency.

Cryptocurrency market growth

The version voiced by Hayes suggests that the second half of March 2025 will prove to be an excellent period for the sale of digital assets and “holiday on the beach”.


Separately, we note that Arthur's forecast does not have to come true. Firstly, he has previously admitted that the accuracy of his predictions was approximately 25 per cent for 2024 - and that's pretty low. Second, even the new essay emphasises how dramatically Hayes can change his mind about what's happening in the market in just three weeks. So it's possible that a month later the trader will change that prediction as well.


In any case, Hays noted that now he, as the manager of the Maelstrom investment fund, will encourage employees who will turn the risk tolerance to the level of “degeneracy”, i.e. to the maximum. In this way, the expert confirmed expectations of a massive rise in the markets in the coming weeks.

Arthur also mentioned his essay from mid-December, in which he predicted the collapse of the coin industry during Trump’s inauguration. The trader admitted that he can be a “shitty predictor of the future”, but he takes into account new information and changes his mind before the opportunity to take advantage of new opportunities is missed.

Three scenarios for Bitcoin’s growth in 2045 as predicted by MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor

Here’s his commentary on the matter.

Imagine hitting a hole-in-one every time in golf, hitting any three-pointer in basketball, or driving all the balls in billiards with one shot. Life would be unbearably boring.

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Bitcoin forecast for 2025

Many analysts agree that the new year will prove to be a positive one for the crypto market, the bullrun of which will reach its peak. For example, analysts Bernstein the day before published 10 forecasts for digital assets for 2025 and confirmed that they expect Bitcoin to grow to 200 thousand dollars.

The same mark is expected by the experts of a large investment fund Bitwise, who shared their expectations of the new year back in the first half of December.

Cryptocurrency investors during the bullrun

At the same time, analysts separately noted that the prospect of the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve by the US government will force them to revise the corresponding forecast. In particular, in such a case, it will be possible to count on the growth of the first cryptocurrency to a peak of $ 500 thousand.


The version of Arthur Hayes is only one of the possible scenarios for the development of the cryptoindustry this year. Note that many analysts bet on the end of the bullrun closer to the end of 2025 by analogy with previous stages of growth. However, we will have to see the highs of coins in practice.


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